Today – February 17 – it will finally be known how he went to the national economy in 2024 after a year of high and casualties that, although they were framed in the deceleration, the fear of a contraction that did not occur and the need for a reactivation plan that It did not go from the ‘Credit Pact’, in the end they were better than it was projected initially.
If one takes into account that starting 2024, the bets of the analysts were around 1% and as the months went by they were increasing until they reached forecasts ranging between 1.7% and 2% today, one of the first of the first Conclusions It is that the local market was more resilient and gave pleasant surprises to investors.
Also read: Dávila, Bolívar and Fajardo, above in intention of presidential vote, according to Guarumo
In the hands of the Dane it will be to know if the end of the year consumption will give the push that everyone was waiting for or the November franton will end up leaving the gross domestic product below what is being expected. So far accounts for the third quarter say that growth is in 2%, data higher than 2023, but that it falls short with respect to the average.
November braking
In addition to GDP for the period July – September, the expectation Looking ahead to the quarter quarter and final balance of the year comes with the antecedent of the monitoring index to the economy in November, which fell like a cold water bald between analysts, who expected a result close to 2% and in the end They had to settle for 0.4% in the annual variation.
For analysts, the balance of the eleventh month of last year reaffirmed a truth that had been mentioned in the various revisions to the economy: the growth rate is slowing down and it is necessary to launch a reactivation plan that focuses mainly on the industry and construction, but that also promotes the good step that trade brings since the beginning of the third quarter.
Specifically, in this balance, it caught the attention that six of the nine economic activities that are reviewed by the statistical authority, appeared in red, led by manufacturing industries (-2.7%) and public services (-1,5 %). At that time, it was the commerce that brought his face and helped the balance not be worse, while the public sector continued to lose strength.
Economic growth
Courtesy – API
Household demand
In the face of what should be expected in the general balance of 2024, The Economic Research Team of Banco de Bogotá awaits a 1.7% rebound for the whole year, highlighting that in the fourth quarter, the economy would have expanded 2.1% for the highest demand for households.
“The estimate is consistent with an annual advance of 2.1% in the fourth quarter, in the midst of a change in tendency of the sectors that were traditionally the engine of the Colombian economy (agriculture, commerce, construction and manufacturing) and a sector Resilient services, ”they said in their report.
More information: More expensive than Colombia: the country of Latin America where to have coffee is a luxury
This research team said that in the performance of traditional sectors, despite moderation in its growth rate, agriculture will continue to drive the economy, given that coffee production reached Recent maximums at the end of the year, that of perishable food reduced its expansion rhythm.
“Meanwhile, the greatest demand for goods by households favored trade and manufacturing activity, while construction, especially infrastructure, has observed an improvement on account of the progress in works in cities such as Bogotá and Medellín ”, They said in the report.
Economic growth
Courtesy – API
Making a panneo of most GDP growth projections By 2024, in general they show a moderate consensus among various entities, with estimates that range between 1.5% and 2%. While the World Bank has the lowest forecast with 1.5%, entities such as Corficolombian mentioned.
On the other hand, Itaú and BBVA Research have a more optimistic vision, with 2%estimates, suggesting that some market actors expect better economic performance. Likewise, according to experts, the variation in projections highlights uncertainty about external and internal factors, such as inflation, interest rates and the global environment.
Other news: In Bogotá there are more than 10,000 street inhabitants: radiography of this population
Bias and uncertainty
In the prior to this report, a Bancolombia report was also known, in which they project that the GDP will grow by 2% in the last quarter of 2024 and this will lead to the total balance of the year to be 1.7%, mainly driven for the slight awakening of the private sector, That little by little he shakes more than a year of bad streak, although he maintains the challenges in the future.
“This would imply a stabilization of growth in rhythms similar to those of the second and third quarter. Thus, the result would be in line with the recent evolution of the Economic Monitoring Indicator (ISE), in line with the negative surprise of November. In any case, this complete 2024 figure would be a clear improvement with respect to what was observed in 2023 (0.6%), ”they said.
Colombian pesos
Istock
For these economists, growth during the fourth quarter would be generated As a consequence of the progress of the private sector, which would be gradually winning traction, and to a lesser extent by the public sector.
“To materialize our estimate, we would consider the result as neutral with a slight negative bias. Although there would be signs of a modest acceleration of private sector growth, uncertainty continues to go to investment appetite and growth as a whole would be stagnating in annual progress rhythms even lower than the potential, ”they reported.
Whatever the data that the DANE presents on this occasion, analysts agree on two things: it is important that the country continue to work on strengthening the confidence of investors, for which it must respect the fiscal rule, and the reactivation plan It remains an urgent need in economic dynamics.
