Financial institutions estimate that credit demand should remain relatively strong in the fourth quarter of 2024, but credit supply shows “signs of inflection”. This is what the Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey (PTC) indicates, conducted with these institutions by the Central Bank (BC) and released this Thursday (21).
The survey was carried out from October 14th to 25th and collected assessments from 71 financial institutions on the conditions of bank credit for large companies; micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs); consumer-oriented credit for individuals (PF) and housing credit for individuals.
According to the view of the institutions surveyed, credit supply conditions were moderately more flexible in the third quarter of this year, “with the exception of the segment of large companies, which entered the restrictive field”.
Default
While in the third quarter the assessment of this segment was neutral, for the fourth quarter some of the factors are expected to worsen, with emphasis on market default, risk tolerance and specific conditions of the company’s industry/sector.
In contrast, institutions expect the maintenance of flexible credit conditions for consumption-oriented families. In the third quarter, the positive highlight was the level of risk tolerance, the institutional environment, attracting new customers and competition from other institutions.
For the fourth quarter of 2024, in general, the research indicates that institutions assess that the factors should remain positive, although with a slight worsening in cost/availability of funding [mobilização de recursos financeiros de terceiros para um investimento, através do mercado bancário ou de capitais] and default.
Furthermore, the evolution of default rates in the fourth quarter should be better than in the previous quarter, in particular, with a drop in default levels in the individual (PF) segments and lower growth for micro, small and medium-sized companies.
Debts
A small improvement in the assessment of the capacity of large companies to honor their debts is also expected (ratings); and that the cost/availability of financing (funding) should be a relatively more restrictive factor in the fourth quarter than that observed in the previous quarter in the MSME and individual segments, with greater strength in the case of housing credit.
For the fourth quarter, institutions also estimate that the housing credit segment for individuals will have more restrictive conditions and that the MSME segment will leave the slightly positive field, observed in the previous quarter.
For this segment, market default continues as a restrictive factor, now accompanied by the cost of financing, which also appears as a negative factor.
