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November 23, 2022
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Delios, figures and misleading analysis

Delios, figures and misleading analysis

By Senator Charles Carrera, MPP – Broad Front. On the occasion of a new presentation of figures for crime reports reported by the Ministry of the Interior, we carried out an analysis of them without the bias or discretion that they try to print from the portfolio, in a crude attempt to disguise reality. In the analysis, we take official figures as a basis.

Again Heber makes a presentation of the data on crimes in a whimsical way, making fun of people. Reality has set in and it is impossible for him to say that homicides are going down, but now to try to minimize reality, he only compares the third quarter of each year. If the Ministry of the Interior really wanted to show us a trend in the behavior of crimes, it should show a series of months or quarters running, but it did not.

If the data had been presented in consecutive quarters, it could have been seen that the quarters of 2020 and 2021 (while activity restrictions were maintained due to the pandemic), there was a drop in homicides, but as of July 2021, With the return to classes and the gradual return of post-pandemic activities, homicides also increased, and with a violence never seen before in our country.

On the other hand, and following Minister Heber’s reasoning, if we make a strict comparison with the same periods of time, we can compare the 9 months of the year, that is, January-September. Heber did not do so because it is clear that 2022 is -after 2018- the worst year in the country’s history (remember that 2018 was the first year after the change in the Criminal Procedure Code in Uruguay).

According to the Ministry of the Interior, in the first 9 months of 2022, 283 homicides were registered, that is a 32.24% increase compared to 2021 and only 11.56% below 2018. But, if we look at previous years Due to the implementation of the CPP, we have that in 2022 there is an increase of 40.8% compared to 2017, 36.71% compared to 2016 and 27.48% compared to 2015.

According to official figures from the Ministry of the Interior, there are practically 378 homicides in the moving year (October to October), this government has accustomed us to having more than one homicide per day.

Delios, figures and misleading analysis

All this information is based on the homicides published by the Ministry of the Interior, let’s remember that the FGN has some differences, for example, in the last request for reports that we made from parliament regarding the homicides in the first half of 2022, the FGN reported 4 more homicides than MI.

We also have to remember the worrying significant increase in dubious deaths, with the particularity that these deaths are not included in the official statistics managed by the Ministry of the Interior. At the end of 2021, the record of 171 doubtful deaths was recorded. But something that is more surprising is that in the first half of 2022, the Office of the Attorney General of the Nation reported 93 doubtful deaths, while in 2021 there had been 68. According to the historical record, the number of doubtful deaths maintained an average of 80 per year (period 2014/2019); a figure that had a significant increase from the year 2020 (159) and 2021 (171), and now in the first six months of the year, 93 cases.

Another fact that demonstrates the lack of direction that prevails in the Ministry of the Interior is the change in justifications for homicides. Before it was said that they increased because people with a criminal record were murdered; Now the justification changes and it is said that homicides occur among people who have a criminal record and/or police notes! Heber created a new class of murdered people, before they were those with criminal records, now also those with police records, this is really unspeakable from a Minister of State.

The data sounds more like justifying an argument that saves the information provided by the president at a press conference that 75% of the homicides were due to adjustments between drug traffickers. Something that demonstrates the lack of professionalism when making a serious analysis on a subject as sensitive as the causality of homicides.

homicide record

For a long time we have heard the current authorities refer to the increase in violent deaths with titles like that, regardless of the explanations given by the Minister of the Interior based on the analysis of the same Observatory that they claim so much today.

Unfortunately, they are receiving a reality check that leaves them exposed to the archive, beyond repair. Precisely, those who loudly proclaimed that they would compare themselves do not miss an opportunity to do the opposite and break –again- a promise and compare themselves with the Frente Amplio efforts.

Not only have they surpassed their own records for 2020 and 2021 (with a pandemic that affected all crimes, including homicides), but so far in 2022 they have surpassed the 314 homicides that occurred from January to October 2019 , with 325 homicides.

Delios, figures and misleading analysis

Regarding the other crimes that occurred yesterday, the truth is that from my point of view, it is really difficult to trust some values. At this time, the Attorney General’s Office is investigating a complaint about the manipulation of complaints in the department of Durazno. Let’s also remember the audios of the former coordinator of Maldonado so that the complaints are not uploaded to the system or the statements of the former boss of San José on the communication of crimes. Heber can no longer talk about isolated cases, there are several and all are involved with authorities in positions of particular trust.

Unfortunately today, it is not clear that the complaints uploaded to the Public Security Management System (SGSP) of the Ministry of the Interior reflect what is happening in Uruguay in terms of public security. For this reason, we focus mainly on capital crime (homicide), because it is more difficult to disguise, although with the issue of doubtful deaths, there may be a serious problem with the registration of homicides in Uruguay.

Today, for every two confirmed homicides, there is a questionable death. A not insignificant value that should concern the Ministry itself and occupy it in its clarification.

For many years, our country had a weight differential in the reliability of its official crime statistics, based on a registration system that earned it the highest rating granted by international audits.

Unfortunately, today that intangible has been lost and the official figures leave many doubts…

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