Consummatum Est: Tariffs arrived so sung last Saturday. Although it is premature to quantify its impact on our economy, the direction of the effects is very clear: Mexico will approach a recession, inflation will increase and the risk-pais will be increased. Although this will depend on the period of permanence of tariffs (at least six months is expected) and if its dismantling would be gradually given. The White House statement establishes that tariffs will last until fentanil and illegal migration “stop this invasion to our country!” But an objective metric is not established to know when that condition is met; This will depend on the humor and arbitrariness of Mr. Trump.
With these general tariffs of 25%, the inoperative of the T-MEC is de facto, since chapter 2 of the agreement is being violated, although the United States justifies it as a measure consistent with its law of powers of an international economic emergency.
Trump’s government’s background claims are legitimate and worrying, Mexico is already convenient to face them. First, the alliance of criminal organizations with government structures has been given. Second, the chemical precursors for the production of fentanyl arrive in the country that in turn is illegally transported to the United States. Third, Mexico has been unable to stop border crossings of undocumented.
In his message of response to the imposition of tariffs, Sheinbaum emphasized the need for collaboration and coordination in an integral way together with the United States to combat the aforementioned problems. Of course, in many areas collaboration is possible and necessary. However, there are issues that compete exclusively to our government and where it has done very little or nothing. For example, to deactivate the presence of narco-organizations in state governments, the government must emphatically withdraw the tacit endorsement that has given governors such as Sinaloa, San Luis Potosí and many other politicians who protect.
On the issue of the illegal entry of precursors and the departure of Fentanil, these activities are carried out in customs, which López Obrador put in the hands of the army and the Navy. This illegal traffic is possible thanks to corruption and illegal collusion of customs personnel. Then, it only compensates for the government to carry out a deep cleaning of corruption in customs to stop the production and export of fentanyl.
On the issue of migratory flows, it is on the northern border where collaboration and cooperation must be given. But the origin of the problem is generated on our southern border. Sealing and controlling said border only corresponds to our government and the efforts to do so have been poor and insufficient. Once again, corruption plays a relevant role to effectively control and regulate the southern immigration crossing.
Knowing that the common threat faced by the three countries of the T-MEC is China, under a rational scheme of operation of the treaty, the optimal would be to establish a type of customs union (said by Gurría and Guajardo), where the T-MEC as a block Set a uniform tariff to China. This would benefit North America, but with Mr. Trump that path, for now, is canceled.
