The voting on November 7 will be “a turning point” in the socio-political crisis in Nicaragua, since the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo will lose its original legitimacy by being reelected in a process without political competition, and if the governments of Latin America do not respond “to the height of the circumstances” a “letter of impunity” will be established for the authoritarian regimes of the region, warn specialists in the matter.
The regional director of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA), Daniel Zovatto, warns that “the stakes are very high in Nicaragua.” Before 2018, there was no precedent of repression in the region like the one that continues to take place in this Central American country, therefore “if we allow Ortega to continue enjoying the impunity that he has counted on until now,” it will cause serious damage throughout the region.
“Ortega and Murillo cannot leave again with impunity, a red line has to be drawn, there have to be consequences and Latin America has to rise to this challenge ”, highlights Zovatto in an interview on the program Tonight, broadcast on YouTube due to television censorship imposed by the regime.
If the governments of Latin America do not reject Ortega’s electoral farce, “there will be a letter of impunity worse than the one that already exists,” says the regional director of International IDEA. “If you kill 320 people and nothing else happens to you, if you manipulate a dialogue process in your favor, there will be no further consequence … if you manipulate an election, you put all opposition prey, you cancel the legal status of the political parties, you manage to be elected and that triumph is recognized ”, it would be like telling other countries that are going through other situations of marked weakness that“ if Ortega does it and it does not happen, they can do it too ”.
Remember that in recent years the region has lost six democracies out of a total of 18. “The situation is extremely serious and what happens in Nicaragua is a turning point.”
“If Latin America does not have the capacity, the dignity, the maturity, to confront and condemn in an energetic way and get involved in seeking an exit to what happens (the sociopolitical crises) in Nicaragua, democracy in Latin America – which is already going through a situation of great erosion and much deterioration – is going to pay an even higher price ”, he emphasizes.
Crisis in Nicaragua will deepen
In Nicaragua “the crisis of democracy and human rights is possibly going to deepen,” says Olga Valle del Citizen Observatory Open Urns. “Possibly we can witness more human rights violations, more political violence, especially if the attention that the international community has, at this moment, on Nicaragua is lost,” he added in the same interview with Tonight.
The activist values that the post-electoral environment “could be very harsh” for the Nicaraguan population, since the absence of democracy in the country “is impacting other dimensions of life”, as “we are seeing it with (state secrecy about of) this coronavirus pandemic, with the increase in poverty, the increase in femicides ”.
The interview with both experts took place hours after the presentation of the report “Nicaragua, elections 2021: A malicious plan to end democracy”, in which it is recommended to suspend and reschedule the elections because “development illegal and fraudulent of the process, as a whole, prevents any possibility that the elections could lead to a result that reflects the free expression of the popular will ”.
The study highlights that “the integrity of the electoral process is compromised“ and, consequently, “the elections lack legitimacy“. The document was presented by Urnas Abiertas in conjunction with International IDEA and the Center for Political and Government Studies of the Andrés Bello Catholic University, under the auspices of the Latin American Program of the Wilson Center and CONFIDENCIAL.
To the “stick and carrot” regime
Regardless of what the international community can do to pressure the Ortega and Murillo regime, national actors have the responsibility of maintaining the country’s socio-political crisis on the regional agenda, For this, “it is very important that the opposition find a way to unite, to build a good common front that is not only political, to link other actors, have a single spokesperson, articulate with the international community, go to the OAS and ask for the intervention of the Inter-American Democratic Charter ”, explains Zovatto.
Likewise, the opposition within the country or in exile must “reconfigure itself,” emphasizes Valle. It must work “based on real democratic principles, of transformation of the State and not of a continuity of this regime without Ortega.” We must also “open up to actors who do not necessarily aspire to seize power, but who are working for democratic values, to rebuild the social fabric.”
Meanwhile, it is necessary to “increase the cost of permanence to the authoritarian regime with more individual sanctions, with more pressure” and at the same time offer to lower the cost if they offer and are willing to leave; that is to say, “a mixture of a stick and a carrot with the aim of forcing a dialogue table, but this time a dialogue table that is well-intentioned and that is not to gain time, oxygenate and then return to repression as happened ago. some years ”, concludes the regional director of International IDEA.
