Daniel Ortega obtained 27% of the votes, and not 75%, according to a CID Gallup poll

A poll by the CID Gallup firm, sponsored by CONFIDENCIAL, carried out between December 5 and 13, revealed that President Daniel Ortega would have received 27% of the votes and not the 75.8% as assigned by the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) While the candidates of the five collaborationist parties would have added 38% of the votes, 20% voted null or blank. Another 15% chose not to answer the question.

CID Gallup consulted a sample of 1,000 people nationwide who possessed an active cell phone line: Did you vote or not on November 7? 58% answered affirmatively and 42% said they did not vote.

To those who did vote, CID Gallup asked: which candidate did you vote for? and the answers were Daniel Ortega (FSLN), 27%; Walter Espinoza (PLC), 15%; invalid vote, 13%; Guillermo Osorno (CCN), 11%; blank vote, 7%; Gerson Gutiérrez (APRE), 6%; Marcelo Montiel (ALN), (3%); Mauricio Orue (PLI), 3%, and 15% did not answer the question.

The results of the 1000 telephone interviews have a margin of error of +/- 3.1 points, and a confidence level of 95%.

According to the survey sample, 52% of those surveyed are women and 48% are men; 22% are between 16 and 24 years old, 26% between 25 and 34 years old, 23% between 35 and 44 years old, 15% between 45 and 54 years old, and 7% over 55 years old. Regarding educational levels, 44% have primary education, 44% higher education, and 12% university education.

The November 7 voting was a process without political competition and under the shadow of repression and the de facto police state imposed by the Ortega regime. The General Assembly of Foreign Ministers of the Organization of American States (OAS) approved a resolution on November 12 that established that the voting process, under which Ortega and Murillo were re-elected, “were not free, fair or transparent and have no legitimacy democratic ”.

CSE without credibility and trust reiterates CID Gallup study

“At a general level, the population does not believe in the data provided by the Supreme Electoral Council on the percentage of people who voted and those who did so for Daniel Ortega. In addition, they consider that these were not legitimate ”, quotes a synthesis of the findings made by CID Gallup.

“Two out of every five people mention that they did not vote in the last elections. The main reasons for this are the fact that they mention that they knew that Ortega was going to win and that they did not like the candidates who participated ”, adds the analysis of the polling firm.

Majority affirms that elections have no legitimacy

The CID Gallup poll also delved into respondents’ perception of the legitimacy of the voting process. To the premise, “the November 7 elections were legitimate “, 66% of those consulted said they disagree or strongly disagree with it. Only 28% of those consulted said they agree or strongly agree with the phrase.

Another premise raised was whether elections are credible. 68% of those surveyed said they disagreed or strongly disagreed with this approach. 27% responded to agree or strongly agree with it.

The premise “believes that Daniel Ortega obtained 75% of the votes”. 76% of those consulted said they disagreed with this statement, while only 20% agreed with it.

71% of those consulted also said they disagreed with the statement that there was “65% citizen participation in the elections “, in contrast to 25% who agreed.

Nicaragua after November 7

The polling firm also conducted a survey on the public perception of the general situation in Nicaragua after the November 7 vote.

70% of those surveyed responded that the re-election of Daniel Ortega implies little or no positive change for the country. Only 24% said that the continuation of Ortega will mean a positive change for Nicaragua.

56% of those consulted expressed that in Nicaragua there is less political and social stability after the events of November 7. 22% estimated that everything remains the same, and the same percentage responded that in the country there was more political and social stability than before the voting.

Also, 54% responded that the continuity of Ortega will bring less prosperity and security for Nicaraguans; 22% say completely the opposite, and 24% consider that there has been no change, and that everything would remain the same.

“After the elections, it is not considered that there can be political stability and prosperity or that there will be a positive change in the country. The majority of the population does not consider a third consecutive reelection of Ortega fair, especially people between 25 and 44 years old. In addition, they do not foresee greater support for their new term, “adds the synthesis of CID Gallup findings.

Sanctions are the product of the violence of Ortega

The issue of sanctions by the international community against the regime’s operators was addressed by the polling firm. To the premise “international sanctions against the Government are a direct result of Daniel Ortega’s violation of democracy and human rights ”, 67% of those consulted agreed.

The following premise, referring to the fact that “international sanctions against the Government are an act of interference by powerful countries against national sovereignty ”, it only had 20% favorable responses.

Party sympathies vary slightly

Party sympathies towards political forces varied slightly in relation to the results of the poll that CID Gallup carried out in October, although in general it is evident how little traction these organizations have. These results also contrast with the percentage allocations of votes made by the CSE in November.

The Sandinista Front is registered among those surveyed as the main political force with a 14% preference. A small increase compared to October, when it was 9%. It is followed by Camino Cristiano with 8% – in October it registered a sympathy of only 1% – and Ciudadanos por la Libertad, which went from 5% in October to 7% in December.

“The Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN), an official party, has only one follower in every seven people. These are proportionally more in the capital city ”, indicates the analysis of the polling firm.

Ciudadanos por la Libertad emerged as the main political force until the CSE inhibited it from continuing in the electoral contest, after a complaint filed by the PLC, its main political collaborator.

Precisely, the CSE once again assigned the PLC the role of second political force, by granting it 14.33% of the votes and guaranteeing an automatic deputation to its candidate, Walter Espinoza.

The CID Gallup poll found that party preference for the PLC is 4%, which has not changed since October. The opposition platform Alianza Cívica registered 2% sympathy, while its counterpart from the National Coalition only 1%.