The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the high prices of oil and various basic products (commodities) have generated changes in the markets that have been reflected in the revaluation of various currenciesespecially from countries that derive much of their income from exports of these products such as Colombia, Peru, Chile and Brazil.
(They launch a campaign to democratize the crypto world in Latin America).
However, it seems the Colombian peso it is beginning to change its trend and is not in such an advantageous position as its peers in the region and, furthermore, it still has to drag through a period of uncertainty prolonged by the political contest that the presidential campaign represents.
For José Ignacio López, director of the Economic Research Department of Corficolombiana, what is clearly on the world level is the strength of the dollar against its peers and some currencies of emerging countries have been strengthening, a fact that corresponds to the fact that Russia is not a viable destination. of investment and after the liquidation of resources increased the appetite for countries with favorable exposure to commodities.
(Deutsche Bank: the country’s currency, the worst performer).
He points out that with the uncertainty that exists in Colombia we could see a reversal of the situation of the peso, which registers a revaluation of 6.14% this year and a devaluation of 7.39% in the last year.
And as a reflection of the strong geopolitical tensions in Europe, The euro has fallen very sharply for several weeks, to levels similar to what it did during the Greek debt crisis, believes Ana Vera, chief economist at Inon Capital.
And in that sense, international investors are looking at currencies that are not so expensive and give access to sources of financing that are not expensive and that is happening especially with the currencies of Brazil, Peru and Chile, and he warned that with the Colombian peso uncertainty is increasing, especially from a political point of view.
(Latin America, a region mired between price hikes in 2021).
In addition, he adds that in the cases of Peru and Chile they have an advantage because their presidents who were considered anti-market have already taken office, “but what they are doing is a more pro-market position and they would be favored”.
And in Brazil, where there will also be a change of President and the favorite for a new election is Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, he also has an advantage because “the market already more or less knows what his government would be like.” In addition, in the cases of the countries mentioned, with the exception of Colombia, they could take better advantage of the higher foreign exchange earnings due to the high prices of their basic products.
For Diego Gómez, a specialist in the foreign exchange market at Corficolombiana, in the first five years of the past decade there was a boom in crude oil prices and better use was made of what is being done now.
It indicates that taking advantage of it would be key to reducing the current account deficit that exceeds 5.5% of GDP.
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