Miami, United States. – The effective population in Cuba has officially descended just over 9.7 million inhabitants, according to data presented during a meeting For the analysis of demographic dynamics, chaired by the Prime Minister of the Cuban regime, Manuel Marrero Cruz.
The indicator is obtained with a methodology that includes people who accumulate at least 180 days of residence in the country for a calendar year and exclude those who remain out of Cuba for prolonged periods.
This figure marks a significant change, since at the end of 2023, the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) reported an effective population of 10.05 million. However, the decreasing trend has continued due to a combination of factors: the contraction of births, the increase in deaths and a sustained immigration exodus.
“Currently the population of Cuba is less than 10 million inhabitants and must continue to decrease,” declared in July 2024During a session of Parliament, the first deputy head of the Onei, Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga.
In his speech, Fraga explained that population aging also contributes to this panorama. In 2023, about 25% of the population was 60 years old or more, exceeding the percentage of children and adolescents, reflecting the deep change in the demographic structure.
In addition, the number of women of fertile age has decreased markedly, which anticipates a continuous fall in the number of births. “In 2024, births will be below 80,000, the lowest figure since 1959,” Fraga said.
On the other hand, independent analyzes suggest that the resident population could be lower than 9 million, taking into account the migratory balance. These estimates emphasize that, as of 2022, the island has experienced an unprecedented population reduction in its recent history.
In geographical terms, the decrease especially affects the provinces of the center and west of the country, such as Havana, Cienfuegos and Mayabeque. For their part, regions such as Granma and Guantanamo have lower decrease rates.
Also in July 2024, An independent demographic studycarried out by the prominent Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, revealed that the population of Cuba had decreased 18% between 2022 and 2023, standing at 8.62 million people.
The analysis, to which he had access The EFE agencyhe sought to quantify the impact of the mass exodus that has affected the country since 2021, mainly for economic reasons, and supply the lack of official statistics.
The study is based on the data of Cubans that emigrated to the United States between October 2021 and April 2024 (738,680 people), according to information from US authorities, including visas, Paroles and irregular arrivals.
In addition to migration, the study considered the negative balance of the vegetative growth, Since in 2022 and 2023 there were more deaths than births on the island, resulting in a population of 8.62 million people.
