The Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology de Cuba (Insmet) issued an early warning notice this Thursday afternoon about an active tropical wave in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, which could develop into a cyclone and affect the largest of the Antilles in the coming days.
The notice, published on the entity’s social networks, states that it maintains “a close watch on the development of cyclonic activity in the Caribbean, where there is currently an extensive area of showers and electrical storms, which is located on the southeastern Caribbean Sea and encompasses northern Venezuela, the Dutch Antilles, and the southern portion of the Lesser Antilles.
In its note, Insmet explains that “this disturbance is associated with an active tropical wave, which has a low pressure center on its axis” and ensures that “the system has a high probability of becoming a Depression in the next 24 to 48 hours. Tropical as it moves west-northwest.”
Cuban specialists detail that the tropical wave “moves slowly under unfavorable atmospheric conditions for its development, due to strong winds in the upper levels of the troposphere.” However, they add that “these conditions will become more favorable in the coming days over the central Caribbean, where it could reach a rapid tropical cyclone development, as it tilts its path to the northwest.”
“So far, the trajectory forecast models consulted show different possibilities over the western Caribbean, ranging from the western and central regions of Cuba to the Yucatan channel or the peninsula of the same name between Monday 26 and Tuesday 27 of next week. ”, they specify.
“On Sunday night this system could be in the waters of the western Caribbean between the seas south of Cuba to the west of Jamaica and northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua,” says Insmet, which reports that it will issue an upcoming warning of early warning this Friday.
The current cyclone season in the Atlantic (from June 1 to November 30) has been described as “very active” with a forecast of up to 17 cyclones, nine of them with the possibility of reaching the category of hurricane. The Insmet has predicted that, with an 85% probability, one of these cyclones could affect Cuba, a probability that is reduced to 60% in the case of a hurricane.
