Tropical wave AL98 could become Tropical Storm Melissa in the next 48 hours. Intense rains and storm surges would affect Cuba.
MADRID, Spain.- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) kept under close observation a tropical wave identified as AL98, which began moving from the eastern Caribbean and presents favorable conditions to evolve into a depression or tropical storm in the coming days.
According to the most recent weather reports, the system shows a probability of between 70% and 90% of cyclonic development in seven days, and between 50% and 80% in the next 48 hours. The tropical wave is currently located in the central Caribbean Sea, south of Hispaniola and east of Jamaica, and continues towards the west-northwest in a favorable environment for its cyclonic development.
Experts point out that, although there is no direct threat to Cuba for now, the trajectory of this type of system is usually uncertain. The forecast models handle several possible scenarios: from a movement through the south of Jamaica and eastern Cuba towards Central America, to a turn further north that could bring it closer to the Island or even the Florida peninsula.
In October—one of the most active months of the cyclone season in the Atlantic basin—the Caribbean Sea maintains high temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions for the development of tropical systems. This increases the need for surveillance, especially in vulnerable territories such as the eastern provinces and coastal areas.
Specialists insist that, even without direct impact, indirect effects such as heavy rains, high waves and gusty winds could be felt in the country if the system maintains its current course.
So far, the Cuban Meteorological Institute (Insmet) has not issued official alerts, although maintains monitoring of the phenomenon given the possibility of indirect effects in the country, such as heavy rains, high waves and gusty winds, especially in coastal areas.
As explained by the Master of Science Ailyn Justiz Águila, head of Insmet, it is expected that in the middle of this week the system will reduce its translational speed as it moves westward, while it enters the Caribbean Sea. The specialist explained that the probability of it becoming a tropical storm in that period is high and, if the forecast is fulfilled, it will receive the name Melissa, becoming the thirteenth organism of the current cyclone season.
Meteorological authorities recommend that the population stay informed through official sources and reliable media, as well as not underestimate the bad weather conditions associated with the system, even if it does not directly impact the national territory.
