Compared to official records, economists’ estimates point to a much wider gap in the cost of living.
MIAMI, United States. – Interannual inflation in Cuba’s formal market stood at 15.41% in October, a slight increase compared to September which, according to data from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) cited by the EFE agencyconfirms the end of the fall in the rate of price increases that began a year and a half ago.
However, according to estimates by Cuban economist Pavel Vidal, real inflation on the Island in 2025, which also includes the informal market, “would be around 70%.”
The figure of 15.41% corresponds to the so-called interannual inflation, that is, the variation in the consumer price index (CPI) when a specific month is compared with the same month of the previous year. In simple terms, it measures how much prices have risen, on average, in the last 12 months: if in October of a year prices are 15.41% above those in October of the previous year, that is the interannual inflation for that month.
Despite the rebound, the official CPI remains well below the levels of a year ago. According to the EFE report, in October 2024 year-on-year inflation was 28.09%. The monthly variation compared to the previous month was 0.96% and the accumulated variation for the year was 11.94%, according to data published by the ONEI.
By category, EFE highlights that the largest year-on-year increase was recorded in “alcoholic beverages and tobacco”, with 104.22%, which indicates that prices in that group more than doubled in one year. Next are “restaurants and hotels” (23.54%), “education” (16.84%), “housing services” (14.44%), “food and non-alcoholic beverages” (14.33%), “miscellaneous goods and services” (13.38%), and “furniture and household items” (13.37%).
At the opposite extreme, the Communications sector, with 0.47%, remains the least inflationary category. This occurs “despite the strong rise in rates applied on May 30, which substantially raised the prices of additional mobile phone recharges, generating protests and controversy,” indicates the EFE report.
Compared to official records, economists’ estimates point to a much wider gap in the cost of living. Vidal’s calculation, for example, highlights the weight of the informal market in the formation of prices for the majority of the population, in a context of scarcity and shortages.
Official statistics also show the accumulated deterioration in purchasing power since 2020. “Inflation has tripled prices on the island since 2020, according to official statistics. The consumer price index (CPI) closed in 2021 above 77%; while in 2022 it stood at 39.07%; in 2023, at 31.34%, and in 2024, at 24.88%.”
Thus, even with a relative slowdown compared to the initial peaks, inflation has remained at very high levels for several consecutive years.
The macroeconomic panorama described in the EFE dispatch is that of a country mired in a deep crisis: “Cuba is mired in a serious economic and energy crisis, visible in the shortage of basic products such as food, medicine and fuel, high and rampant inflation, economic contraction, growing dollarization and prolonged daily blackouts.”
In terms of economic activity, the Island is also unable to recover the lost ground. The economy contracted 1.1% in 2024 and adds up to a drop of 11% in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the last five yearsaccording to their own official data. Added to this is that ECLAC predicts that the GDP of the largest of the Antilles will be negative this year, which reinforces the perspective of economic stagnation or decline.
