Madrid/The secrecy of the Cuban regime prevents us from knowing precisely how oil reserves are at the moment, but if the calculations of Homayoun Falakshahi, a commodity price analyst at the Kpler data platformare true, the alert is maximum. Waiting for the arrival in the next few hours of the tanker Ocean Marinerfrom Veracruz (Mexico), with 80,000 barrels of crude oil, the inventory amounts to only 360,000 barrels. Given that the amount that the Island needs daily is approximately 110,000, the country has fuel to cover the demand for four days, or five if national crude oil production is added.
The first signs are already noticeable, with the depletion of diesel which, in addition to paralyzing most of the generating plants, has forced this Wednesday to almost completely suspend the service of gazelles in Havana.
National oil production is 40,000 barrels, a very small amount, although it can meet the demand for several thermoelectric plants. But Cuba cannot face the complete paralysis of Venezuelan crude oil shipments, even though Russia and Mexico contribute a more or less negligible quota. Distributed generation, transportation, agriculture and hydraulic sources require imported raw materials and the Island is not in a position to acquire everything it needs at market prices.
In the absence of public data, Kpler experts estimate that Cuba received between 11,000 and 16,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil per day in 2025.
In the absence of public data, Kpler experts estimate that Cuba received between 11,000 and 16,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil per day in 2025. Their accounts differ considerably from those offered by Reuters, which estimated shipments at 27,000 barrels per day (bpd) from January to November. Things began to get complicated in December, especially since the US boarded the sanctioned tanker on the 10th. Skipperwhich after a stop at sea to transfer part of its cargo to a ship bound for Matanzas, continued heading to China to sell the crude oil on behalf of Cubametales.
Kpler data also reflects that Mexico has been delivering to the Island an average of 12,284 bpd. Since in its lowest range, the portal indicates that Venezuela sent only 11,000, the conclusion was that the North American country has surpassed Venezuela as the main supplier for the first time. The news spread like wildfire this Wednesday after the Financial Times was echoed, forcing the Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, to give explanations.
The president explained that the “historic” shipment of oil that has been given to the Cuban people is part of the contracts already signed and humanitarian aid to the Island, although she admitted that “evidently, Mexico became an important supplier” as a result of Caracas’ non-compliance. In this sense, it is Venezuela that modified its historical commitments, not Pemex.
According to the data available to date, the first ten months of 2025, the Island’s exports stood at 5,000 bpd, although in November and December there were new loads. Kpler, however, affirms that they amount to double that.
In 2024, the collaboration rose to 20,100 bpd, 20% more (although derivatives fell 18%), with a joint value estimated at 600 million dollars
In 2023, the company Gasolina Bienestar, a private subsidiary created by Pemex to, among other tasks, make shipments to Cuba, exported to the Island about 16,000 bpd of oil and derivatives (worth about 300 million dollars, the payment method of which is unknown). In 2024, the collaboration rose to 20,100 bpd, 20% more (although derivatives fell 18%), with a joint value estimated at 600 million dollars. These accounts agree with Sheinbaum, since, in the absence of shipments from the last two months, the reduction has been 73% in 2025 compared to the previous year, as Reuters highlighted in a note published in December.
PDVSA, which in 2000 agreed to export to Cuba for free – in exchange for medical and military personnel, among others – some 55,000 bpd and sent up to 100,000 bpd during Hugo Chávez’s time, has progressively reduced its shipments, although at the same time it has facilitated other types of business. This is the case that was revealed after the capture of Skipperwhich revealed what was previously an open secret: that the Cuban regime resold Venezuelan crude oil to obtain foreign currency.
What will happen now is a mystery that may or may not be resolved in the coming days. At the moment, the Electrical Union has planned a little more than 1,600 megawatts of deficit for this Thursday, after this Wednesday it amounted to 1,700. The company’s Facebook page shows a hive of activity in the solar parks, which are trying to finish at full speed, although it will be impossible for now for this energy to make up for the lack of hitherto vital crude oil.
