The Ministries of Mines and Energy, Commerce and Finance issued a statement indicating the five fundamental axes and some tools of the energy transition. One of the points mentioned in the document is “continue the exploration of liquid fuels and gas”.
(Existing contracts would ensure oil and gas self-sufficiency.)
Finally, the document indicates that in May the Report on Resources and Reserves of the National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH) will be presented, based on which public policy decisions will be made. With this information, the Ministries pointed out that “This balance will give us a complete vision of the exploration contracts and their effects on oil production and exports.”
It should be remembered that the Minister of Mines and Energy, Irene Vélez, pointed out that the decision was maintained in not giving new contracts. This, despite the fact that the Minister of Finance, José Antonio Ocampo, He noted that economic analyzes were being carried out to reach this determination.
(Three oil companies have 2 billion barrels in reserves.)
According to the latest ANH Resources and Reserves Report, cut to 2021, Colombia had 7.6 years of proven reserves and up to 12.9 with probable and possible reserves.
However, Regarding the reports that companies have already submitted regarding their reserves, the outlook is mixed.
Ecopetrol, the largest producer of hydrocarbons, achieved a 0.44% increase in the life of its reserves, increasing its equivalent barrels by nine million, reaching 2,011 million in 2022.
According to Sergio Cabrales, a professor at the Universidad de los Andes and an expert in the sector, he explained that the greatest contribution to reserves is due to improved recovery.
However, the increase is quite minimal, which when intersected with the rise in internal fuel consumption may mean that the increase in the reserve life index is not very important. However, he clarifies that one of the factors that will make barrels of crude viable the most will be the price.
For example, the settlement on which its resources were reported was US$99 per barrel, so anything that costs less than that to extract goes into reserves.
The company puts close to 75% of the oil produced in the country, so if there are no major changes in its reserves at a general level, the changes would not be so significant.
(The oil reserves for Ecopetrol would reach 7.6 years).
Other cases such as Frontera Energy show that its reserve life index fell by 1.3 years.
For this reason, Cabrales considers that the report that the ANH will present with respect to 2022 will be very similar to the panorama that the 2021 analysis showed. He estimates that these could range from the current 7.6 years to even 8 years. However, taking into account the results that have been seen “I doubt that it will go from 7.6 years to 7.7, even”he pointed.
This means that the portfolios will face figures very similar to those that the country already had before making the decision to award new contracts.
Although there was expectation regarding the results of offshore exploration, these resources are not yet viable.
Cabrales points out that even if the government tries to launch a round, the message to investors has been negative, so there could be few bidders.
DANIELA MORALES SOLER
