Oil prices fell on Tuesday as the market weighed expectations of ample global supply this year against uncertainty around Venezuelan crude production following the US capture of Nicolás Maduro.
Brent crude futures fell $1.06, or 1.72%, to settle at $60.70 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.19, or 2.04%, to $57.13 a barrel. The Mexican export mix stood at 52.51 dollars per barrel, a decline of 1.07 dollars or 2 percent.
“It is premature to evaluate the impact of the capture of Nicolás Maduro on the oil balance. What seems obvious, however, is that the oil supply will be sufficient in 2026, with or without an increase in the OPEC member’s production,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil.
Global oil demand grew by about 900,000 barrels a day last year, compared with a historical trend rate of 1.2 million bpd, Morgan Stanley analysts said.
OPEC supply grew by 1.6 million bpd and that from non-OPEC countries grew by about 2.4 million bpd between the fourth quarter of 2024 and 2025, Morgan Stanley analysts said.
“This means both sources of supply enter 2026 at a very strong level,” they said, adding that could put oil markets in surplus by up to 3 million bpd in the first half of 2026.
Possibility of higher pressure
Pressure on prices could be exacerbated by the US capture of Maduro on Saturday and its potential to accelerate the end of the US embargo on Venezuelan oil, which would mean higher production.
Market participants were debating the future trajectory of Venezuelan supply after US President Trump said US oil companies would boost production there.
