Although not all credit segments advance at a uniform pace, by the end of 2025 it is expected that a real growth of this indicator of 2.6% will be recorded, after more than two years in which it presented positive nominal figures, but negative real ones.
This was mentioned by Asobancaria, in a study in which it also presented its projections of 2.6% for GDP, 5.1% for inflation and a fiscal deficit that will reach 7.2% of GDP in 2025.
Since April 2023, the portfolio consistently recorded real declines, reaching its most negative point in December 2023 with a fall of 6.7%, the highest since the ’99 crisis.
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The financial union said that the portfolio has recovered slowly, but with better market conditions. “In May 2025, the portfolio returned to positive territory after more than two years of contractions. This change in the trend began to be evident from the end of 2023, supported by better prospects for economic growth and the expectation of lower interest rates.”
For the coming months, the portfolio is projected to return to better performance, with an estimated growth close to 2.6% in real terms at the end of the year, says Asobancaria.
The financial union said that this pace of recovery remains constant and portfolio growth reaches levels of 3.6% at the end of 2026. Although this rhythm is progressive, it is not uniform for all modalities.
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In particular, the consumer portfolio has been completing 29 months of contractions. This represents around 27% of the total portfolio, and its integrity is essential to continue with the recovery of the total portfolio.
The recent recovery trend allows us to forecast a return to growth for this modality in the second half of next year.
Credit pact
For its part, with the Credit Pact, the joint strategy between the National Government and the banks designed to channel $254.7 billion towards strategic sectors of the economy, to date, Once the first 13 of the planned 18 months have been completed, $170.3 billion have been disbursed, which represents a cumulative fulfillment of 66.9% of the goal.
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In terms of disbursements, by sector, Manufacturing and Energy Transition registered $102.7 billion, which represented a growth of 12.4% compared to the period September 2023 – September 2024 and is equivalent to 63% of the sector goal of $163 billion; Housing and Infrastructure reached $34.9 billion, with a growth of 34.7% and an advance of 86.1% with respect to the goal of $40.6 billion; Agriculture totaled $19.6 billion, with an increase of 17.3% and 64.5% compliance with the goal of $30.4 billion; Tourism contributed $5.5 billion, which represented a growth of 27.5% compared to the previous period and an advance of 66.7% compared to the goal of $8.2 billion, and Popular Economy accumulated $7.6 billion, with an increase of 14.7% and an advance of 60.8% compared to the goal of $12.5 billion.
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According to Asobancaria, these preliminary results anticipate good performance for the coming months when the Credit Pact approaches its final stretch. It is expected that during the last quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, the Pact will continue to meet the goals agreed upon with the executive, thus becoming one of the most successful agreements between the financial system and the National Government to boost the economy and energize the country’s business fabric.
Improve quality
In the current year, the improvement in the quality of the portfolio in all its modalities has been notable.
The union predicted that portfolio quality would close at levels of 3.3% in commercial, 5.6% in consumer, 7.2% in microcredit, 3.3% in housing and 4% in the entire portfolio. In 2026, better market conditions will favor quality improvement, he said.
HOLMAN RODRIGUEZ
