Purchases in pesos with credit cards grew 9.7% in November compared to last Octoberwith which they registered their first real rise since June 2022, in a context in which the appearance of digital promotions and the purchase of televisions due to the proximity to the World Cup promoted the use of plastics, according to a report prepared by First Capital Group based on data from the Central Bank (BCRA).
Although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November will be published on December 15, Private consultants anticipate an increase in the general price level of less than 6%so credit card use over the past month would have exceeded that threshold.
Regarding the accumulated of the last year, the growth of credit cards was 68.1% in November, a percentage that does not manage to exceed the inflation level of the last 12 months, estimated at around 90%.
“The existence of online sales promotions about the end of the month surely helped a recovery of the portfolio, as well as the beginning of the Soccer World Championship advance the sales of televisions and useful electronic devices to follow this event. This growth finds a limit in the minor update that the credit quotas in cardholders’ installments had in recent months,” said Guillermo Barbero, partner of First Capital Group.
In November, the total balance of loans in pesos to the private sector reached a level of $6,737,656 million, which represents an increase of 68.3% annually and 5.9% monthly.
“It is a value close to this month’s inflation according to estimates by economic consultants and the government itself, in which case It would be the first month in which we would not have a drop in balances in real terms since June this year,” said a report by First Capital Group on the main lines of loans and their different behaviors.
The personal loan line grew by 4.5% per month and has uninterrupted nominal growth for 28 months, although it registers a year-on-year rise of 58.8%, which represents a fall in real terms.
“The recent rise in interest rates conspires against the recovery of consumer creditHowever, the increases in salaries from the joint ventures are beginning to show their influence in the higher amounts of liquidated balances,” explained Barbero.
Regarding the mortgage credit lines, including those adjusted for inflation/UVA, during November they had a growth of practically 0% compared to the previous month and 34.4% in annual terms.
The pledge credit line increased 104% versus the portfolio at the end of the same month of 2021which is why it far exceeds year-on-year inflation and ranks first in growth among loan lines.
“The variation with respect to the balance of the previous month marked a rise of 5.3%, accumulating two years of consecutive monthly increases. In contrast, once again, the variation for the month in real terms is expected to be negative, as during the last quarter,” explained Barbero.
