COVID-19: What is the cause of the decrease in deaths, infections and hospitalizations in October?

The month of October closed with a decrease in the number of deaths, infections, regular hospitalizations and in intensive care areas (ICU), as a result of COVID-19. According to the report of the National Center for Epidemiology, Prevention and Control of Diseases of the Ministry of Health (Minsa), 910 people died two months after the end of this year, the lowest number since the pandemic began in March 2020.

SIGHT: They will carry out free molecular tests to taxi drivers and users in three districts of North Lima

The number of infections also decreased to 16,905 in October. The highest peak had been recorded in March this year with 250,169 cases. In terms of hospitalizations, these fell to 3,201. The highest number was also in March with 15,682 hospitalized patients. And in the case of patients in ICU beds, the lowest peak was recorded on October 22 with 842 occupied beds. This figure reached 2,590 last May.

What are the reasons that can explain this decrease in COVID-19 indicators? The epidemiologist and public health specialist, Juan Astuvilca, and the infectious disease doctor at the Cayetano Heredia Hospital, Carlos Medina, agree that the main reason for this reduction is vaccination against the virus.

“In the first place, vaccination coverage, regardless of the laboratory that produces the vaccine, has notably decreased the number of deaths, which has been demonstrated by studies of effectiveness worldwide.”, Affirms Astuvilca.

He mentioned that the same happens with hospitalizations because when receiving the two doses of the vaccine there are fewer infected and complications in people’s health.

“Adequate progress has been made, we are in 50% of the target population vaccinated with both doses”, Highlights Medina on the subject.

The specialist from the Cayetano Heredia University stressed that the application of the third dose has begun to people from priority groups such as medical personnel and the elderly, who received the second dose six months ago.

MIRA: Quinceañero in San Juan de Lurigancho: They arrest more than 100 attendees during Halloween night (PHOTOS)

In this regard, Medina commented that “in hospitals there are people who were vaccinated in March, April and May, and they already have a poor response to the vaccine, so they begin to become infected and can present complicated pictures.”

“The good thing is that the third dose has already been approved for this priority group and that will help a lot so that the figures do not skyrocket, especially now that the holidays are coming in November and December, where crowds occur.”, He said.

Medina recalled that it was at this time when the second wave was further enhanced in 2020, “and that is why we have to work from now on.”

Evolution of death figures and COVID-19 cases, month by month, since the pandemic began.

Respect for health protocols

Astuvilca also mentioned that the population has already acquired the habit of respecting the restrictions to avoid COVID-19 infections. “It has become customary to use masks, social distancing, hand hygiene. Due to the death and severe conditions of many of our relatives, friends and acquaintances, a little awareness has been created in the population, which has respected these measures, although not in its entirety as we would like, but at least a part of the population”.

As the third cause of the reduction in numbers, he pointed to the possible herd immunity because many people were already infected during the first and second waves of the virus.

He recalled that seroprevalence studies were then carried out indicating that in various regions between 40% and 50% of the population was already infected by coronavirus and had antibodies. This without counting those infected without diagnosis because they were asymptomatic or presented mild symptoms and the discard test was not performed.

He commented that at the time there was talk of a herd immunity of up to 70%, which would reduce transmission and control the disease. Astuvilca added that this situation would also be preventing the start of a third wave.

However, he asserted that we cannot be totally confident that this scenario will not present itself as it has happened in other countries.

At this point Medina also agreed due to the large number of infected we had in the first and second waves (a total of 2′202,189 confirmed cases), which although it is not complete protection, it is important, as he commented.