The price of copper It fell 7.25% on Friday from the maximum reached on January 29, when it reached US$6.28 per pound. However, there are structural factors behind the price of the metal that suggest that it would remain at comparatively high levels compared to the average of the last 12 months, which represents an opportunity that we must take advantage of as a country.
The average price of the red metal, so far this year, reaches US$5.92; With this, it is 31.3% higher than the average for all of 2025 and 45.5% higher than the average for a similar period of that same year.
Hugo Perea, chief economist for Peru at BBVA Research, tells Perú21 that it is “difficult” for the price of a pound of copper to be sustained at US$6. It does not even rule out that there will be new corrections in the price, but it still points out that our economy continues to benefit.
Impact
Perea specifies that, with current average prices and assuming that the factors behind the boost in its price do not alter drastically, a first impact for the Peruvian economy would be the improvement of its fiscal result. According to the economist, the deficit could be reduced by up to an additional percentage point this year.
The same would happen with economic growth and private investment, which could increase, on average, by an additional point. In addition, it indicates that the trade balance could increase by around US$14 billion by the end of the year.
“The trade surplus, which we had estimated at more or less between US$31,000 million and US$32,000 million for this year, could reach up to US$46,000 million,” he comments.
What factors are behind the evolution of the copper price? Perea specifies that there are at least five. First of all, it mentions the anticipated demand for the red metal in the event of a possible imposition of tariffs by the United States. Secondly, it cites problems linked to the production of the metal (supply restrictions), associated with difficulties in some copper mining operations.
Thirdly, Perea mentions greater use of the red metal linked to the change in the energy matrix and the expansion of new technologies, which suggests an excess demand starting in 2027.
A fourth factor, noted by Perea, is the longer maturation period of new mining projects because they have lower grades and yields compared to those of the past. Finally, it refers to the position of the new president of the FED, aimed at reducing the liquidity injected by the central bank, a policy that would limit speculative capital that is directed towards investment in both industrial and precious metals.
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