The Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) has decided to maintain the basic interest rate of the Economy (Selic) by 15%. The announcement was made early Wednesday night (17), after a two-day meeting between the Central Bank President (BC) and its directors.
In the official statement, Copom justifies the maintenance of Selic for the uncertainty of the external environment, “Due to the conjuncture and economic policy in the United States.”
Which, according to the committee, requires caution “by emerging countries in an environment marked by geopolitical tension”.
The domestic scenario is also cited. For Copom, Indicators of economic activity have “growth moderation”, despite the “dynamism” of the labor market, and inflation remains above the goal.
“Inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 calculated by the Focus survey remain at values above the goal, being 4.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Copom inflation projection for the first quarter of 2027, current relevant horizon of monetary policy, is 3.4% in the reference scenario,” says the Copom note.
Unchanged scenario
At the previous meeting, on July 29 and 30, the Copom decided to interrupt the interest rate of the interest rate, keeping Selic at 15% per yearon the grounds that the external environment is more adverse, due to the commercial and tax policies adopted by the United States (USA).
Decisions are made taking into account the inflationary situation, public accounts, economic activity and the external scenario – all based on the assessment of the macroeconomic scenario and the main risks associated with it.
Copom minutes are published within four business days. This was the sixth meeting of the year of the committee. The Basic Economy Interest Rate (Selic) is valid for the next 45 days, when the Copom meets again.
Selic
To reach the inflation target, the Central Bank uses Selic as its main instrument. When the copom increases the basic interest rate, the purpose is to contain heated demand, and this causes reflexes in prices because higher interest rates make credit more expensive and stimulate savings.
Banks consider other factors other than Selic when defining interest to be charged to consumers, including risk of default, profit and administrative expenses.
Thus, higher rates can also make it difficult to expand the economy. When the Selic rate is reduced, credit is tendency to be cheaper, with incentive to production and consumption, reducing control over inflation and stimulating economic activity.
