The indicator accumulates 11 consecutive months of declines in its annual variation, something that has not been observed since the period between December 2019 and March 2021, according to an analysis by Banco Base, which notes that this pattern reflects an increasingly negative perception about the economy and employmentin a context where private consumption already shows signs of stagnation.
Expectations for the future worsen
The fall in November was generalized, since the five components that make up the indicator fell, which shows a simultaneous deterioration in present and future perceptions.
When rating the household situation today versus 12 months ago, the perception fell 0.92 points and was at its lowest level since October 2023.
The expected household situation within 12 months also fell 0.97 points; In its annual comparison, it fell 1.18 points and has accumulated falls in 10 of the last 11 months.
When Mexican households were asked about the economic situation of the country Today versus a year ago, a drop of 2.29 points was observed, while in the annual comparison it fell 6.63 points, its largest decline since February 2021.
And when consulting expectations about the country’s situation within 12 months, this component fell 2.39 points monthly and 8.20 annually, linking 11 months of annual declines; In addition, it is at its lowest level since August 2020.
In addition, Mexicans see less possibility of purchasing durable goods, since this indicator decreased 0.81 points monthly and 0.57 annually, and adds three consecutive months of decline.
Mexicans fear for their jobs
Among the complementary indicators, the perception of employment stands out: the question “How do you think employment will behave in the next 12 months?” fell 1.09 points monthly and 5.99 points annually, stringing together 12 consecutive months of annual declines, something not seen since the period between December 2019 and February 2021. In addition, it is at its lowest level since August 2022.
For Banco Base, this perception is directly related to the deterioration observed in the formal labor market this year, a factor that is beginning to erode consumer morale.
Although Inegi reports that private consumption grows slightly in its accumulated comparison – 0.14% compared to 2024 at the end of September -, Banco Base warns that household sentiment is already internalizing a more adverse environment: lower creation of formal employment, deteriorated economic expectations and inflation that has not yet subsided at the expected speed.
“The sustained deterioration in consumer confidence increases the probability that private consumption will lose more strength towards the end of the year and may increase the risk that the economy will enter a recession,” says the institution.
