The Consumer Confidence Index (ICC) advanced 5.4 points in September to 89 points, the highest level since January 2020, with 90.4 points. On quarterly moving averages, the index rose 3.3 points to 84 points.
The data were released today (26) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Ibre/FGV).
According to the coordinator of Surveys at Ibre/FGV, Viviane Seda Bittencourt, consumer confidence rises for the fourth consecutive month, influenced by more optimistic prospects for the coming months. According to her, this result seems to be related to the drop in consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months and to an increase in optimism regarding the job market.
“There is an increase in consumption intention, except for lower-income consumers, which still reflects the difficulties of this class. In addition, the proximity of the elections has a potentiating effect on these expectations. It is necessary to be cautious in these results, considering a still restrictive monetary policy and the possibility of a slowdown in economic activity, which would reduce the speed of recovery of the labor market”, explained the researcher, in a note.
According to Ibre/FGV, the rise in September was influenced by the improvement in indicators about the moment and coming months. The Expectations Index (IE) advanced 7.6 points to 100.2 points, the highest since December 2019, with 100.3 points, pre-pandemic period of covid-19. The Current Situation Index (ISA) rose 1.6 points to 73.3 points, the highest result since March 2020, although still low in historical terms.
Regarding the indicators that measure consumer satisfaction at the moment, there is a perception of an improvement in the economic situation, with an increase of 2.5 points in the indicator to 82.3 points, the highest level since February 2020 (85.5 points). The assessment of the family’s financial situation changed little, from 0.8 points to 64.9 points, a level that is still low in historical terms.
In expectations, the item that most contributed to the rise in the month was the one that measures the optimism of families in relation to the financial situation in the next six months, whose indicator rose 10.4 points to 100.8 points, the highest level since January 2020. (81.7 points).
The indicator that measures the economic situation also increased for the fourth consecutive month. In September, it rose 6.1 points to 115.4 points, the highest since July 2021 (116.3 points). The purchase intention of durable goods rose for the second consecutive month, this time by 5.4 points, accumulating a high of 16.7 points in the last two months, taking the index to 84.4 points, the best result since February 2019 (86, 6 points).