The National Construction Cost Index – M (INCC-M) rose 0.27% in December, accumulating an increase of 9.40% from January to December 2022. In December 2021, the index rose 0.30%, with increase of 14.03% in 12 months. The data was released today (27) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV Ibre).
The rate related to materials, equipment and services changed from -0.23% in November to 0.38% in December, with the rate corresponding to materials and equipment registering an increase of 0.37% in the month, after falling 0.35% in the previous month. Among the four subgroups of this component, two rose: materials for structures changed from -0.98% to 0.62% and equipment for transporting people went from 0.04% to 0.64%.
The rate on services changed from 0.35% to 0.43% in December, with emphasis on the increase from 0.35% to 1.35% in the rate for ready meals at the workplace.
The labor index changed from 0.53% in November to 0.16% in December, with an accumulated increase of 11.76% in 12 months.
Construction Confidence
FGV Ibre also released today the Construction Confidence Index (ICST), which remained relatively stable, with a variation of -0.3 points in December, to 95.3 points. This is the lowest level since March 2022 (92.9 points). In quarterly moving averages, there was a drop of 2.1 points.
For the coordinator of Construction Projects at the institute, Ana Maria Castelo, the entrepreneur’s confidence throughout the year accompanied the sector’s resumption, which had a “significant growth” in GDP numbers and job creation in 2022.
“The slowdown in the pace of rising costs represented a relief – in terms of limiting business improvement, the cost of raw materials lost protagonism even for the marks of No Difficulty.”
However, she points out that in November and December the scenario began to reflect pessimism regarding the evolution of demand.
“The Expectations Indicator reached December below 100, which represents greater pessimism than a year ago. That is, businessmen already anticipate a slowdown in the recovery. It is worth noting that activity should still reflect this recent cycle for some time, but should lose strength with the drop in demand”.
Components
According to FGV Ibre, the slight drop in the indicator reflects the worsening perception of entrepreneurs about the current situation. The Current Situation Index (ISA-CST) retreated 0.4 points, to 96.6 points, influenced by the contract portfolio volume, which fell 0.7 points, to 98.1 points, and the current business situation , which dropped by 0.2 points to 95 points.
The Expectations Index (EI-CST) was stable, down 0.1 point to 94.3 points. The business trend indicator for the next six months fell 1.1 points to 92.3 points, and the forecast demand for the next three months indicator rose 0.9 points to 96.3 points.
The level of capacity utilization (Nuci) of construction fell by 0.9 percentage points in December, to 78.3%, with -0.8 percentage points in labor (79.6%) and -2 percentage points in machinery and equipment (71.9%).
The Forecast Demand Indicator (DP) rose 0.9 points in December and did not compensate for the strong drop of 7.4 points in the previous month. Residential buildings, the sector that stood out in the recent recovery of construction, DP rose 4.5 points, after falling 10.9 points in November.
