An opinion poll prepared by CONFIDENTIAL, among more than 5,000 readers subscribed to the Informative Alerts through WhatsApp, reveals a low tendency of interest to participate in the November 7 votes, questioned by the elimination of opposition parties and the imprisonment of seven presidential candidates by the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, who seek their re-election in Nicaragua.
In the consultation made through the WhatsApp channel of CONFIDENTIAL, 1702 people responded: 5.99% answered that they do intend to vote, while 5.46% answered that they still do not know if they will exercise their right to vote, and 86.43% of those consulted do not intend to vote on November 7, in both 2.12% said they wanted to vote, but argued that they are currently outside of Nicaragua
The opinion poll with a single question: “Are you going to vote on November 7? was sent to more than five thousand people subscribed to the Informative Alerts of CONFIDENTIAL, through the number 8577-1820, and more than 1,700 responses were received during seven days between October 18 and 24.
Anonymous responses do not represent a statistically representative sample and only reveal a current of opinion, predominant among a group of readers of this publication who identified themselves by gender, age range and current place of residence. The poll only supported a single response per device.
60.58% of those who responded to the query were men, 38.54% were women, 0.47% identified themselves as non-binary, and 0.41% preferred not to specify their gender.
26.56% of the people who answered are between 56 and 65 years old, followed by 22.21% who affirmed that they are between 36 and 45 years old. Another 19.80% are between 46 and 55 years old. 14.51% said they were over 65 years old and 12.81% specified that they were between 25 and 35 years old. Finally, 3.94% mentioned being between 16 and 24 years old.
More than 94% of those who responded to the survey are residents of Nicaragua. Half of them (50.47%) identified themselves as citizens of the department of Managua. 5.52% claimed to be living outside of Nicaragua.
In addition to Managua, the other six departments with the highest participation in the survey were: Carazo (7.46%), León (6.46%), Masaya (5.41%), Chinandega (3.47%), Granada (3.17%) and Matagalpa (3.11% ).
“Elections are a sham”
CONFIDENTIAL He also spoke with citizens, including public servants, to find out the reasons why they would not vote on November 7.
The young writer, Jorge Campos, is categorical in stating that he does not intend to vote “because there are no conditions”, although he reflects and says “there never were”.
“I could not vote with so many political prisoners and pretend that nothing is happening. No transparent electoral process is possible without options, without freedoms. The only one who benefits from voting is Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, ”he says.
For Campos, the dictatorship “needs to show that their victory happens with high citizen participation”, although he admits “what happens at the polls is secret, no one knows if they really voted or annulled the vote.”
State workers denounced pressure to go to vote and that they are forced to comply with voting quotas taking his whole family. The ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) has summoned state workers and sympathizers to organize as “mobilizers” to “guarantee the Sandinista vote” and promote the idea of a “massive vote” that justifies the triumph of Ortega and Murillo. despite the fact that the latest CID Gallup poll reveals that the FSLN’s sympathy is at its lowest point in the last 30 years, at 8%, and that less than 20% would vote for Ortega.
For “Marcela”, a 23-year-old university student, it is “crazy” to think of going to the polls “because it would be playing the game of this dictatorship that is electing and counting votes alone.”
“It was not enough for them to eliminate parties, but they kept all possible candidates in prison so that they did not make noise and denounced all the violations. These elections are a complete farce ”, he values.
Meanwhile, the young lawyer “VJ” considers that electoral processes are an “important process in the advancement and development of a country”, although “these can be a blessing or a punishment”.
“Unfortunately for Nicaragua it has been a punishment in the last three civic exercises since we have allowed the greatest violator of rights in the history of this country to establish itself in power,” he says.
He believes that what will happen in these elections “will be the greatest farce ever recorded.” However, he believes that abstaining is not the answer.
“I will exercise my vote, even if it is null, but with a giant message for the ruling party. This November 7 I am not staying at home, fear paralyzes and in Nicaragua we cannot, nor should we, allow ourselves that luxury ”, he argues.
Twitter user @nicaclic agrees that he believes in electoral processes, but with standards and mechanisms of transparency, observation and full coverage by independent media.
“There will not be all this in Ortega’s elections, the self-convened people will not be able to choose, whatever their favorite candidate is, because they are imprisoned, and true unity has not yet formed. True leaders are needed without distinction of colors or ideologies ”, he assures.
Because I don’t cast my vote, this one # 7N I decide, I stay at home. #YoNoBotoMiVoto
No to the fraudulent elections of the Sandinista dictatorship.#SOSNicaragua @GerallChavez @Bacanalnica @ 29Cheva_Patria @MNAutoconvocado @LuciaPinedaU @MLillyDelgado @CIDH @Csanchezberzain pic.twitter.com/SKKIr45KRS
– Nicaragua Clic ®?????? (@nicaclic) October 26, 2021
The Nicaraguan, who asks to be identified only by his Twitter account, actively participates in a campaign on social networks that calls for “not to throw away the vote” in solidarity with the more than 150 political prisoners “who are unjustly detained and kidnapped by the dictatorship. Sandinista de Ortega and Murillo and for the more than 100,000 Nicaraguans who left due to harassment, threats and harassment from the same state apparatus.
“And most importantly, there are more than 300 victims of the 2018 repression who have not yet had access to justice, for all these reasons I will not participate in the electoral farce,” he says.
The CID GALLUP survey
In the latest CID Gallup poll, conducted in September among 1,200 people in Nicaragua, it revealed that 51% considered it “very likely” that they will participate in the election, while 31% said that it was “little or not at all likely”, 17% that “somewhat probable ”and 1% did not know how to answer or refused.
“Nicaraguan citizens have been characterized by their turnout to the polls. However, for the next elections in November, only half of the citizens said they were sure that they would go to the voting centers (51% very likely) and that they would use their right to vote next November. The rest, especially the followers of opposition parties or those who do not have sympathy with one or another group, indicate doubts about whether to attend to cast the vote ”, highlights the CID Gallup study.
In the run-up to the November 7 voting, the regime of Ortega and Rosario Murillo, his wife, spokesperson and vice president, has eliminated political competition. Since last May, 39 opposition leaders, businessmen, human rights defenders and journalists have been imprisoned; among them the presidential candidates Cristiana Chamorro, Arturo Cruz, Félix Maradiaga, Juan Sebastián Chamorro, Miguel Mora, Medardo Mairena and Noel Vidaurre.
Two other opposition politicians who announced their intentions to run for head of state, María Asunción Moreno and former “Contra” leader Luis Fley, left Nicaragua to avoid arrest.
March 7N, a song and campaigns on social networks
Various organizations of the “Nicaraguan Democratic Opposition” agree on a call to “stay home” and not participate in the voting, which will be held under a police state, with the opposition candidates imprisoned and their political parties banned, explained at the beginning of October, Jesús Téfel, a member of the Blue and White National Unity (UNAB), one of the organizations that signed the opposition declaration.
Also, from exile, thousands of Nicaraguans in Costa Rica, the United States, Spain and residents in other countries of Latin America and Europe marches were announced on November 7 to denounce electoral fraud under the slogan “Citizen Electoral Strike”.
Jimmy Guevara from the Union of Nicaraguan Exiles (UEN) explained that the march, convened in several cities, hopes to “show that Nicaragua does not legitimize the Ortega-Murillo dictatorship because there will be no credible elections.”
“There will be no elections but the decision of a dictatorship re-election, that is like a congress more than elections where a political party gives up places, gives positions to stilted parties that are lending themselves to electoral fraud and where they settle to be able to continue screwed the power, ”Guevara told 100% Noticias.
The Carazo Self-convened Movement and other organizations have promoted the hashtag #YoNoBotoMiVoto on social networks to invite people to denounce the fraudulent elections and demonstrate the abstention in the elections.
Join us for the freedom of Nic.#NicaraguaNoVote #SOSNicaragua
This 7N #YoNoBotoMiVoto pic.twitter.com/pAPIezXPpI
– Mov. AutoConvocado Carazo (@MNACarazo) October 28, 2021
A music video, recorded in Costa Rica, also circulates on social networks, in which children, young people and adults call to decide to stay at home on election day.
In the 1:36 minute video, people are shown wearing face masks, and many with masks for fear of reprisals against their relatives who remain in Nicaragua dancing to the sticky song. “This November 7, let’s stay at home. Nicaragua can choose ”is the title of the video clip that shows citizens carrying the blue and white flag of Nicaragua and wearing typical costumes, recalling the massive marches carried out during the Rebellion of April 2018, in which Ortega’s resignation was demanded and Murillo and justice, freedom and democracy were demanded, but they were prohibited by force and the bullets of the dictatorship.
