The National Supply Company (Conab) estimates a production of 54.94 million bags of coffee. The forecast appears in the 1st Survey of the 2023 Coffee Crop, released today (19), in Brasilia.
“For the current crop, even though it is a negative biennial year, the forecast is 7.9% higher, compared to the crop harvested in 2022, breaking the evolution cycle of the series since the 2001 crop, when Conab began to monitor the coffee production crop in the country”, said the president of Conab, Guilherme Ribeiro, when announcing the figures.
He explained that, of the estimated 54.94 million bags, 37.44 million will be Arabica coffee, which corresponds to a volume 14.4% greater than that obtained in 2022; and 17.51 million bags will be processed conilon coffee, which represents a production 3.8% lower than the volume obtained in 2022.
“In relation to conilon, it is important to say that, after a record harvest, the perspective for this season signals a certain reduction in the productive potential due to the climatic adversities registered in the main state [produtor]which was the Holy Spirit”, said the president of Conab.
production area
According to Conab, regarding the total area destined to the production of Arabica and Conilon coffee, the estimate is that 2.26 million hectares will be used. “This represents an increase of 0.8% in relation to the last harvest”, said Ribeiro. In 2022, the area used for these crops was 1.9 million hectares (production); and 355.5 thousand hectares in formation for later production.
“In negative biennial cycles, producers usually carry out the most intense cultural treatments in the crops, promoting some type of management in their areas that will only come into production in the coming years”, stressed the president of Conab.
According to him, due to the “very unfavorable” weather in 2021, many crops did not go into production in 2022. “Now, in 2023, almost 100,000 hectares of crops are in production, mainly in Minas Gerais, where this production is greater, even being a negative biennial year”, he explained.
According to Conab’s Crop Monitoring manager, Rafael Fogaça, despite the prospect of an increase in the area under production, the expectation is that there will be a drop in the average yield compared to the previous harvest, which should “impact on the perspective of total production, estimated in this first survey at 17.51 million bags of processed conilon coffee”, he said. The number is 3.8% lower than the volume recorded in the 2022 harvest.
