Despite the climatic adversities resulting from the La Niña phenomenon, the National Supply Company (Conab) estimates that Brazilian grain production in the 2021/2022 harvest will be 5% higher than in the previous period (2020/2021).
Published today (10), the 5th survey on the current harvest estimates that producers should harvest around 268.2 million tons of grains – around 12.79 million tons more than the 255.41 million tons of the season. last.
Even better than the result of the 2020/2021 season, the expected total represents a reduction in expectations compared to the newsletter released in January, in which the state-owned company estimated that national grain production could reach 284.4 million tons. Volume that, if achieved, would represent an increase of 12.5% compared to the previous period.
One of the main products exported by Brazil, soybeans are expected to experience a drop in productivity of around 9% compared to the previous harvest. According to Conab, 16.8% of the crops dedicated to the cultivation of oilseeds have already been harvested. And even though the planting took place within the ideal window, weather adversities affected the main producing regions as of November, generating an expectation that the total national production will not exceed 125.47 million tons, while exports of the product should remain in the around 80 million tons. In the previous bulletin, the forecast was that the production of the oilseed would reach 140.50 million tons and exports, 89.31 million tons.
Regarding corn, Conab believes that production will recover from the initial difficulties and that producers will be able to harvest 112.34 million tons of the grain – a result 29% higher than in 2020/21. The result of the first harvest should remain at 24 million tons, very close to the total harvested last season. For the second harvest, an increase of 47% in the harvest is expected, reaching 86 million tons. The higher production and the depreciated real against the main currencies should favor the export of around 35 million tons of corn.
cultivated area
Due to both the reduction in the cultivated area and the lower productivity per hectare, the total bean production should remain around the same 3 million tons of the previous period, and the first crop of the current season should present a drop in the harvest of 4.2% – a result that Conab technicians believe will only be worse because the expectation is that the next two crops of the legume will show recovery.
In the case of rice, Conab estimates that the harvest should reach 10.57 million tons. This result, if confirmed, will represent a drop in production of around 10%. Cotton, in turn, is already sown in about 79.6% of the area destined for cultivation and the expectation of the state-owned company is that production will grow close to 15%, reaching 6.6 million tons. In addition, the company estimates that the volume of the product exported should be 2.5% higher than last year, reaching 2.05 million tons.
In its 5th Grain Harvest Survey 2021/2022, whose entirety is available on the internet, Conab points out climate issues as one of the determining factors for the scenario predicted by its technicians. Information that the president of the state-owned company, Guilherme Ribeiro, highlighted, in a note released today.
“The performance of the current harvest is impacted by the severe drought, verified in the states of the southern region of the country and in the center-south of Mato Grosso do Sul, which justifies the expressive losses in estimated yields, especially in soybean and corn crops”, he maintains. the Company’s president, Guilherme Ribeiro, in a note. “Even with more regular rainfall compared to that recorded in December last year, the rain registered in January in the South region was not enough to reach the average for the entire region”, ponders Ribeiro.
