Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest around 271.2 million tons of grain in the 2021/2022 harvest. The estimate is made by technicians from the National Supply Company (Conab) and, if reached, will represent an increase of almost 14.5 million tons compared to the previous cycle.
Despite the positive expectation, the productivity of the main grain grown in the country, soybean, was hampered by unfavorable weather conditions recorded in important planting regions, such as the states of Paraná, Santa Catarina and part of Mato Grosso do Sul. In addition, in Rio Grande do Sul, the drought halved the production of the legume.
In view of the losses recorded in these and other units, Conab technicians estimate that soybean farmers will harvest about 125.6 million tons of the grain – a reduction of about 10% compared to the 2020/2021 harvest. As a result, the carryover stock for the 2020/21 harvest rose to 8.85 million tons and the export projection to 77.19 million tons, of which 66.6 million tons have already been exported between January and August this year. .
The estimates are from the 12th Grain Harvest Survey, which Conab released today (8). Those responsible for the study estimate that the total production of corn will grow 30% in relation to the previous result, reaching about 113.2 million tons. Thanks, mainly, to the resumption of productivity in the second harvest, which should account for something around 86.1 million tons of the forecasted total.
High also for the carryover stock for wheat in 2023, influenced by the higher production expected for the cereal. The forecast is that the stock will end at 1.6 million tons for the harvest with the commercial year from August 2022 to July 2023. In the case of corn, the drop in productivity in important producing regions in the second harvest, reduced the expected volume. for consumption and export of the cereal, now estimated at 76.5 million tons and 37 million tons respectively. Even with these drops, the projection for the final stock was also slightly lowered, from 9.7 million tons to 9.4 million tons.
If, on the one hand, the lack of rain partially affected the efficiency of cotton crops, now it favors the harvest, scheduled to end in September, with the possible mark of 2.55 million tons. In addition, the weather conditions also conferred a “very good” quality to the cotton lint harvested. Based on the result, Conab adjusted the volume of the product to be exported, estimating that foreign sales should not exceed 1.9 million tons.
In the survey, the planting of sorghum is also highlighted positively, and the planting of beans negatively. The first, driven by corn prices, recorded a record production of 2.85 million tons, an increase of 36.9% in relation to the previous crop. Bean producers, on the other hand, faced climatic problems in all three crops of the legume, whose production should only reach 3 million tons, which is enough to supply only the national domestic demand.
In the case of rice, Conab technicians estimate that around 10.8 million tons will be harvested, which represents a decrease compared to 2020/21 and also sufficient to supply the domestic market. According to the study, this is due to the smaller allocation of area for planting, as well as the reduction in the national average productivity.
At the same time, technicians predict a lower consumption of rice when compared to the survey released in August. As a result, they estimate that carryover stocks will be at “more comfortable” levels, with a forecast that they will end the year at 2.36 million tons. In addition, they revised forecasts regarding the volumes of the product to be exported and imported.
The new forecast is that Brazil will export 1.4 million tons and import 1 million tons of rice in 2022, with the motivation for the adjustments being the monitoring of the evolution of exports so far.
*With information from the Conab Press Office
