The estimated total production for the Brazilian benefited coffee crop this year is 51.8 million bags, which, if confirmed, will represent a 4.4% drop in comparison with the previous crop. The 1st Coffee Survey – Safra 2025 was released on Tuesday (28) by the National Supply Company (Conab).
Conab’s harvest monitoring manager, Fabiano Vasconcellos, explains that this fall is a reflection of a whole climate conjuncture observed since 2021 in the country.
“This is the first result of the 2025 coffee crop forecast. CONAB monitors the coffee crop and releases four estimates per year. This result has as a tonic the reflection of the climate in 2021 in 2023, and part of 2024. It is still a challenging crop, ”said Vasconcellos.
According to Conab, productivity was impaired by factors such as high temperatures and water restriction during flowering phases, which should result in an average harvest of 28 bags per hectare, which corresponds to a 3% reduction in comparison with 2024.
The result should be negative even if there is growth of 0.5% in the total area intended for coffee cultivation in Brazil, which was 2.25 million hectares, 1.85 million for production and 46 thousand hectares for training.
“For Arabica coffee, the estimate points to a production of 34.7 million bags, a 12.4% drop over the previous year. This performance reflects the low bienality cycle and climate adversities, especially in Minas Gerais, the largest producer in the country, where the reduction was 12.1%, ”said Conab.
In the case of Conilon Café, Conab estimates is a production totalized at 17.1 million bags. If confirmed, the result will represent, according to Conab, a “expressive growth” of 17.2%.
