After it was announced that the president of the United States, Donald Trump, You must decide before September 15 of this year if Colombia is described For non -cooperation in the fight against drugs, impacts for the country would not only be evidenced in reputational matters, but also from the economic and commercial aspect.
In that sense, the Colombo American Chamber of Commerce (Amcham Colombia) projected the possible scenarios that the country would face in case of being descertified, but also, the impacts for the type of sanction that could be applied, that could reach losses for more than US $ 1.8 billion.
(See: Colombia has a 70% probability of being discertified by the United States)
At first, the president of Amcham Colombia, María Claudia Lacouture, stressed that by the situation of increased illegal crops, among other factors, The country has a probability of between 55% and 70% of being descertified, inclining greater mind towards 70%.
With that context, the Chamber elaborated a compliance model to dimension the risk of a descertification, detailing that it does not use official mechanisms of the United States government, therefore “”It cannot be assumed as an American analysis or as part of its evaluation methods”
Taking into account the types of sanctions in the Washington certification process There are three types of variables: without sanctions, with intermediate sanctions and severe sanctions. The case to which the country should be aiming is to obtain a certification for national interest (without sanctions), since it would not affect economic, security and military assistance and maintain bilateral cooperation.
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With intermediate sanctions, tourism would fall 15% to 20%, which implies losses from US $ 450 to US $ 600 million.
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Impact by type of sanction
Now, according to Amcham Colombia, one of the foci of conversation is the impact for the country. For example, in the case of receiving a certification for national interest, in tourism, There would probably be a marginal adjustment in traveler flows or no impact.
Likewise, on issues of Bilateral cooperation is estimated that there could be losses of up to US $ 45 million over the more than US $ 450 million annually that the American giant gives Colombia. Also, the effects on multilateral financing would be moderate, with possible adjustments in deadlines or conditions, but without relevant blockages.
From the point of view of intermediate sanctions, economic issues begin to put into play. According to the analysis, In the tourism sector there would be a fall of visitors from 15% to 20%which would mean losses for Colombia between US $ 450 million to US $ 600 million. Also for bilateral cooperation the figure is increased.
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Bilateral cooperation could be reduced 30% to 40%, that is, between US $ 135 and US $ 181 million less.
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In the case of being bounded with intermediate sanctions, it is possible that bilateral cooperation cuts are between 30% to 40%, What translates into a loss of between US $ 135 million to US $ 181 million, mainly affecting social, justice and security programs.
Also, bilateral financing would have 25% to 35% restrictions in approvals, which, for example, could affect the destination of resources granted by the Inter -American Development Bank (IDB), Between US $ 215 million and US $ 301 million, over US $ 862 million assigned annually.
However, in the most catastrophic case of receiving a descertification with severe sanctions, the country would have millionaire losses in all variables. So, The reduction of tourists would range between 30% to 35%, which translates into losses from US $ 900 million to US $ 1 billionthat would join an international contagion of non -American visitors. This will add a loss of US $ 300 million more.
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With severe sanctions, tourism would fall up to 35%, with losses of US $ 900 to US $ 1 billion, more US $ 300 million for international contagion.
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For its part, bilateral cooperation would have a fall of 60% to 70%, which means a detriment of between US $ 270 million to US $ 315 million, with infection effects on other donors such as Europeans. And in the case of multilateral financing, a 50% to 60% block is estimated, with US $ 431 million restrictions at US $ 517 millionwith cascade effect on IMF and BM, limiting infrastructure and social development.
While until the United States decision is known, Colombia will be in a limbo, María Claudia Lacouture said there is a margin of maneuver. “There is a window of opportunity and action that can be worked. It is important that there is a will from the national government to be able to take advantage, there is time and that is an important message“, said.
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Multilateral financing would be restricted by up to 60%, with losses of between US $ 431 and US $ 517 million for development projects.
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What could have more weight on the evaluation?
Within the analysis of Amcham Colombia, the probable weights that are by criteria for the evaluation of the fight against drugs in that regard are estimated, and as its name mentions it well, The reduction of illicit crops is one of the criteria that has the most weight, close to 50%.
Followed is the interdiction and control of traffic, prosecution and extraditions and political will and results. For these three, the Chamber put a weight for each of 15% and highlighted the international anti -drug commitments with 5%.
It should be noted that the increase in illicit crops has been indicated as one of the most relevant factors that limit the positive assessment of other efforts. While Colombia has shown results in interdiction and in the fulfillment of international commitmentsThe United States “will weigh the political will higher” in the decision process, according to Amcham.
Additionally, in issues of political will, it was pointed out that today there are no high -level figures that actively defend Colombia and the traditional bipartisan support in Congress has eroded.
“The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has issued critical statements about the lack of drug trafficking control and the expansion of the Gulf Clan (FTO). But the contradictory signals from Bogotá are framed in the intention of negotiating with the Gulf Clan under the total peace policy, the alignment message with the Maduro regime and the low results in eradication generate doubts about the real commitment”They conclude.
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Diana K. Rodríguez T.
Portfolio journalist
