Colombia is currently going through an economic and political panorama, which little by little increases citizens’ expectations about the direction of the Nation, in the closure of Gustavo Petro’s government and the race in which it will be defined whether the country remains on this path. , returns to the rhythm that the right set for decades or jumps towards a different alternative.
While the answer finally arrives, the local context is immersed in a series of challenges that, beyond guaranteeing the fiscal stability of the country in the medium and long term, attracts the attention of analysts and other market actors due to the possibility of a breakdown of the institutional framework and that, as a consequence, the country continues to lose attractiveness as an investment destination.
More information: How much would the SGR budget be if the project is approved in Congress?
Recently, the firm Control Risks published an analysis on the risks that the Nation faces in this matter and there stated that it is still too early to talk about a crisis and that it does not believe that a scenario like this could occur. However, he warns that the months to come will be essential and require careful monitoring.
In a conversation with Portafolio, Oliver Wack, manager of Control Risks for the Andean Region, shared some aspects of the analysis, emphasizing that, although the elections will be in 2026, the tensions and divisions that exist between the sectors in favor and against this government will make the race for the Presidency begin much earlier.
Economic recession
PHOTO: iStock
“I think it has a lot to do with the political moment in which we find ourselves and with the position in which the current government finds itself, as well as with the controversy that exists around its management indicators and, in general, the management that has been given to the government in these two years of Gustavo Petro. In practice we already see the first candidacies taking shape, pre-candidacies being launched,” said Wack.
The Control Risks spokesperson added that, because of this, “many people have taken a quite clear position that this experiment, that this government should not continue in power. Perhaps much more explicitly than in previous years with other presidents, it is this idea that people are really already saying that we have to have a change,” and he insisted that it will not be just any presidential race.
Also read: How much is a day of work in Colombia worth with transportation assistance?
Disenchantment of extremes
Now, although he recognizes that there is discontent with the current administration, Oliver Wack pointed out that it cannot be overlooked that there is an exhaustion of the Colombian electorate towards the political extremes and that this could favor centrist candidates, who have a higher index of favorability.
“In Colombia, voters, perhaps also in part because of the situation and the experience they have had with this government and with the previous government, are somehow getting tired of political extremes. If you see the favorability of some of the candidates who are already emerging on both ends of the political spectrum, it’s generally not very good,” he explained.
Likewise, he made it clear that this phenomenon responds to regional and global polarization, which has different effects in each country, although he highlighted that in Colombia it is perceived as a rejection of extremist proposals, which would end up benefiting those candidates who present themselves as a downtown alternative.
Colombian pesos
iStock
“Although polarization is a worrying regional and global phenomenon, I think that, in general, in Colombia we are in a slightly different situation, precisely because of the situation we are in, with a great possibility, I would say, that the next central elections will be the ones that will put the winning candidate,” he said. Wack.
Protect the institutionality
In addition to disenchantment with polarization, Control Risks warns that there are risk scenarios that could affect democratic stability, such as attempts to prolong power that go beyond political rules, rejection of electoral results, electoral manipulation, or use of social unrest to influence in the electoral process.
Other news: How much must you earn to declare income in Colombia?
This is why Oliver Wack stated that the priority for the presidential race that is very close to beginning should be the generation of conditions that help protect institutions and guarantee an effective transition of power. regardless of who the winning side is or the political interests of the leaders in power.
“One could look, for example, at the neighboring country and talk about manipulation or attempts to manipulate the electoral result and, finally, there is also a scenario of taking advantage of these levels of social discontent and social unrest to try, in fact, force the result and the electoral process, or influence it, at least,” he said when referring to these concerns.
Nariño House.
THE TIME
In this way, they indicated that, although it seems unlikely that If there is an institutional breakdown or a substantial change in the rules of the democratic game in Colombia in the face of the 2026 elections, there will be certain critical moments and factors in the next two years that will test the strength of Colombian institutions and that will serve as key indicators to validate (or not) the projection.
“The most important thing here is to call for calm, especially in the face of this scenario of alarmist debates about the next two years, what is going to come, the fears that many people have that we could be a new Venezuela or become Cuba. . There are some risks on the table and that is precisely what we must work on,” they concluded.
These analysts closed by saying that, although somewhat tense, they foresee that the transition of command that the country will experience will occur within the democratic framework and institutional rules, warning that citizen control will be fundamental and, beyond the “noise” that will be generated, the priority must be to move the country forward.
