From August 6, the export of Brazilian coffee to the United States will be taxed by 50%. While battling to be left out of the list of Brazilian products that will be taxed by the US government, the national coffee sector is still marked by uncertainties, the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA) of the Luiz de Queiroz Higher School of Agriculture (ESALQ) of the University of São Paulo (USP).
According to CEPEA researchers, because of this high rate, Brazilian producers can be forced to redirect part of their production to other markets, which should require “logistics agility and commercial strategy to mitigate damage to the national production chain”.
The United States is the main destination for coffee exports in Brazil. In 2024, they imported about 23% of Brazilian coffee, especially from the Arabian variety, an essential input for the local roasting industry.
Colombia accounted for about 17% of total US imports, while Vietnam contributed approximately 4%.
For CEPEA, as the United States does not produce coffee, raising the import cost should compromise the viability of the entire internal chain, which involves roasting, cafeteria, beverage industries and retail networks.
“Cepea estimates that the eventual entry into force of the fare tends to impact not only the competitiveness of national coffee, but also the US consumer prices and the formulation of blends Traditional, which use Brazilian grains as a sensory and balance base, ”says Cepea’s statement.
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Dealings
The President of the United States, Donald Trump, made the proposal for taxation of Brazilian products official marketed with the US. But the executive order brought about 700 exceptionssuch as orange juice and pulp, fuels, ores, fertilizers and civil aircraft.
Coffee did not enter this list of exceptions. With that, right after Trump’s announcementthe Coffee Exporters Council (CECAFO) said it will continue to be included in the list of Brazilian products that will be left out of taxation.
