The price of coffee should rise again in the coming days, warned the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic). In a press conference granted early Wednesday afternoon (24), in São Paulo, the president of the entity, Pavel Cardoso, said that It is possible that there is an increase between 10% and 15% in the prices of the product to be passed on to supermarketssince the costs of buying the raw material were leveraged.
However, he highlighted Pavel, this readjustment in the price of coffee “should not be higher than the average of the year.”
Abic’s executive director, Celírio Inácio da Silva, said that this new price has already been communicated to retail earlier this month. “But, as retail was only shopping now, from the 15th, so we believe that, from next week or early this month, these prices are already on shelves, with a transfer of 10% or 15%,” he predicted.
Retraction
The producers’ association informs that the discharge of coffee prices observed in 2025 caused a retraction in product consumption in the Brazilian market. According to data that were released today by ABIC, there was a 5.41% drop in coffee sales in the Brazilian market, between January and August this year, compared to the same period last year. In absolute numbers, sales fell from 10.11 million bags to 9.56 million bags this year.
Abic acknowledges that the increase in prices was very expressive, causing some types of coffee, such as soluble, accumulates increases of up to 50.59%.
Despite this pricing volatility and also the retraction in consumption, ABIC expects to close this year 2025 with a level similar to the previous year.
“The September data leads us to believe that we will behave surprisingly later this year, for the next closure. This is an incipient feeling, based on September numbers, as we are almost closing the month, but it is indicative that we will possibly have good news about consumption at the closing of the year,” Cardoso projected.
Tariff
According to Pavel, the Brazilian coffee industry also lives uncertainties about the overwhelming of grain exports to the United States. Brazil, he stressed, is today the largest coffee supplier to Americans, that increased rates against Brazilian productsas a form of pressure against The trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro for attempted coup d’état.
“The executive order [do governo dos Estados Unidos]published on September 6, indicates that the United States has completed and heard the market that coffee, not being produced there, will not have tariffs. This reading still does not give us clarity if it will turn to zero [de tarifa] or will continue with 10%. The reading we made is that there will be no tariffs, because the United States does not produce coffee. It has only one very incipient production in Hawaii and Puerto Rico, but almost nothing, ”said the president of the entity.
Beyond this executive order, the sector evaluated as positive The possibility of a meeting between the presidents of Brazil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and the United States, Donald Trump, next week. “We will check out the meeting that will be between the two presidents next week, but this reveals how coffee and meat complex is sensitive to American inflation,” he said.
Pricing
A study also released on Wednesday (24) by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA) of the Luiz de Queiroz Higher School of Agriculture (Esalq), from the University of São Paulo (USP), pointed out that, between September 15 and 22, the price of type 6 Arabica coffee, fell 10.2% in Sao Paulo, while the robust coffee retreated 11.1%.
According to the CEPEA/ESALQ indicator, this price reduction was the result of “the expectation of more significant rainfall in the producing regions of Brazil, the making of profits and the settlement of purchase positions on the New York Stock Exchange (Ice Futures), after strong highs, and the possibility that US tariffs on coffee will be removed”.
