The National Confederation of Industry (CNI) maintained the forecast of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025 even with the tariff imposed by the United States to Brazil.
The data, released on Tuesday (19), are in the conjuncture report of the 2nd quarter, published by the entity.
CNI reduced from 2% to 1.7% the industry growth forecast by 2025, but changed the projection of agriculture upwards from 5.5% to 7.9%.
“The sector [da agropecuária]added to a warm job market, should support 2.3% of GDP growth even in the midst of the increase in US tariffs on Brazilian exports, ”the entity said.
Transformation, construction and extractive industry
According to the report, the high interest rates, the heated rhythm of imports and the likely drop in exports – because of the new US commercial policy – will restrict industrial activity. The projection of the entity for the growth of the transformation industry by 2025 was changed from 1.9% to 1.5%.
The construction industry, according to the Confederation, will continue to be heated thanks to the continuity of the projects started in 2024 and the good performance of the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program, whose launches grew 31.7% in the 1st quarter. CNI maintained the estimated growth of GDP growth in the sector by 2.2%.
The extractive industry should also be one of the positive highlights this year. “No wonder, CNI has doubled from 1% to 2% the expectation of high sector, mainly due to increased oil production,” he said.
Workers’ performance mass
According to CNI forecasts, the number of occupied people should increase 1.5% by 2025, 0.6 percentage point above the previous projection of the entity in the first quarter.
Real yield mass should grow 5.5%, 0.7 more percentage point compared to past forecast. “With this, the average vacancy rate should record the lowest level in history for the second consecutive year, being 6%.”
