The National Confederation of Industry (CNI) released today (12) the Conjunctural Report in which it revises its estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, sum of goods and services produced in the country) this year from 1.2% to 0.9 %.
The entity also reduced its economic projections for the industry, which according to new estimates should have production 0.2% lower this year than in 2021. In December, the CNI had calculated growth of 0.5% this year.
“If this scenario is confirmed, it will be the seventh time, in 10 years, that the national industry shrinks”, highlighted the CNI in a note.
Among the reasons for the revisions are the difficulties faced by globalized production lines as a result of the prolongation of the war in Ukraine, which has pushed up the price of international freight, due to the rise in oil.
Another factor is the Ômicron variant of covid-19, which continues to affect production in China, a country that follows a zero-tolerance policy against the virus, promoting quarantines of entire cities.
“Both the commercial and financial sanctions imposed by several Western countries on Russia, as well as the new variant of covid-19, contributed to the persistence of breakdowns in the production chains”, said the CNI.
Other factors highlighted by the entity for the reduction of the GDP estimate are also the reduction of real income, shrunk by high domestic inflation, and the consequent high interest rates, which discourage the purchase of durable goods such as automobiles and household appliances.
“We have an increasingly difficult challenge to face high inflation with low growth,” said Mário Sérgio Telles, CNI’s economics executive manager.
Among the industrial types most affected is the manufacturing industry, which produces final consumer goods, whose GDP should end this year with a reduction of 2%, compared to a growth of 3.4% last year. Both the difficulty in obtaining inputs and raw materials and the reduction in consumption are the main problems, points out the CNI.
One of the few that benefited from the international context should be the extractive industry, which due to the increase in the prices of products such as oil and iron ore should close the year with a growth of 2%, although lower than the 3% registered last year.
