The National Confederation of Industry (CNI) projects a growth of 2.3% for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the sum of all goods and services produced in the country, for this year. The estimate is below 2.4% projected at the end of last year for this year.
“We have reduced the country’s growth projection a little for this year, because the economy’s slowdown is being stronger than CNI expected, and because the Central Bank gives signs that it will further raise the Selic rate,” says CNI’s director of economics Mário Sérgio Telles.
CNI points out that if confirmed, GDP performance will be the smallest in five years and will represent a 1.1 percentage point retreat from the growth of the Brazilian economy by 2024 (3.4%).
According to the confederation estimate, industry GDP, for example, should grow by 2% and the service sector, 1.8%. Both sectors will have, if the projection is confirmed, retreat in their growth rates, as in 2024, they had up 3.3% and 3.7%, respectively.
“The Brazilian economy gives clear signs of slowdown and they come from the last quarter of 2024. GDP, in the last quarter of last year, grew only 0.2%, a growth well below what we had seen in other quarters. There is a general discouragement of the economy,” explains Telles.
CNI foresees a lower rhythm of demand expansion, which will impact both industry and services.
The transformation industry is expected to grow by 1.9% this year, according to CNI, half of the 3.8% of 2024. Construction should also have loss of growth pace, from 4.3% from 2024 to 2.2% this year.
On the other hand, better performance is expected for the extractive industry this year, with projected growth of 1%, above 0.5% last year. The same should occur with agriculture that has an estimated growth of 5.5% this year, a much better result than last year, when the sector dropped 3.2%.
The CNI estimate is that the real interest rate ends 2025 with a rate of 9.8% per year, more than 7% of 2024. A real growth of 6.5% of total credit concessions is also foreseen, below 10.6% determined last year.
Government expenses should close the year with actual growth of 2%, according to CNI projections, also below 2024 (3.7%). Family consumption should increase by 2.2%, less than half of last year (4.8%).
Less intense expansions are also expected than last year of the contingent of occupied people in the labor market (from 2.8% in 2024 to 0.5% this year) and the salary (7.6% in 2024 to 4.8% this year).
Reductions in the pace of investment growth in the country (from 7.3% from 2024 to a 2.8% forecast this year) and external demand are projected. The external scenario, according to CNI, will feel the impacts of the new US commercial policy.
