The volume of retail sales for Mother’s Day is expected to reach R$ 14.42 billion, a drop of 1.8% in relation to the real financial movement, that is, after discounting the inflation of the previous year, according to estimates by the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC). In 2021, the sales volume reached R$ 14.68 billion.
The estimate takes into account the high inflation and high interest rates, evaluated today (5), in an interview with Brazil AgencyCNC economist Fabio Bentes, responsible for the research.
“It could not be different, given the current consumption conditions, when we have had double-digit inflation for some time, interest rates are at the highest level in the last five years and we have an average income of the population showing a real drop than 6%, according to a survey by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)”, said Bentes.
“You couldn’t expect growth under these conditions. Even considering the total reopening of trade, the consumer’s pocket is still affected by high inflation, high interest rates and, mainly, by the issue of the job market, which needs to be better addressed”, added the economist.
Despite the projected reduction for the date, the number is higher than the R$ 8.8 billion recorded in 2020, at the height of the covid-19 pandemic, when most establishments were closed. “The Mother’s Day retail store was closed in May 2020, and we were struggling to create conditions for reopening”, recalled Fabio Bentes.
“In 2021, the scenario was already better and, in 2022, although the pandemic still exists, it is weakened. The problem is the combination of consumption factors, which have not been favorable for the expansion of sales”, completed Bentes. .
positive variation
The CNC survey reveals that, for the first time, none of the 26 items that make up the basket of goods and services evaluated should have a retraction, compared to the previous year. The average variation of these items, around 10.6%, should be the highest in the historical series started in 2013, pressured by current inflation. The items measured by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA-15), accumulated in 12 months, highlight the changes in the prices of home appliances, such as refrigerators (+27.8%) and stoves (+24.9%). In the same way, furniture items associated with the commemorative date also tend to present a significant variation (+19.4%), which should discourage the search for these products, especially considering the recent trend of rising cost of credit.
A survey carried out by the National Association of Finance Executives (Anefac) identified that, in May 2021, the basic interest rate of the Brazilian economy was at 3.5% per year. Ten months later, basic interest rates were already at 11.75% per year. In the same period, the average interest rate of the main credit operations jumped from 5.88% per month (or 98.5% per year) to 6.57% per month (or 145.9% per year).
The clothing, footwear and accessories sector, which usually accounts for the largest share of sales, should continue leading this year, with a forecast of R$ 6.69 billion, an increase of 1.4% compared to last year. On the other hand, the segments of household appliances and electronics (R$ 2.33 billion) and furniture and appliances (R$ 2.29 billion) should present drops of 9.3% and 9.5%, respectively.
biggest increase
In the same way, a survey carried out by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getulio Vargas (Ibre-FGV) based on 31 products and services from the Consumer Price Index – Market (IPC-M) indicated that the most sought-after gifts and services for the Mother’s Day had, in the last 12 months, the biggest increase registered for this basket in the last 20 years, 9%, slightly below the inflation accumulated in the period, of 10.37%. In 2003, the readjustment was 10.83%.
According to the survey, services led inflation, with a rise of 13.79%, driven by airline tickets, whose prices increased by 72.83%. Also in the services basket, restaurants rose 8.13%, hotels (5.72%), excursions and tours (4.54%) and beauty salons (4.19%), although they were below general inflation.
According to the researcher and economist at Ibre Matheus Peçanha, as in the past year, cultural attractions continue to be the best options for a good program with mothers, because they still have prices close to stability. Among them are concerts (0.12%), cinemas (1.33%) and theaters (1.42%).
Matheus Peçanha assessed that the post-pandemic resumption plays an important role in this dynamic. “The tourism sector has shown an increase in demand that has been repressed since the covid-19 pandemic and prices are reflecting this. In the case of restaurants, there is still the aggravating cost of food, which has been the focus of recent inflation,” he said.
Among the basket of gifts most given to mothers in this period, the economist reported that the basket of 22 durable and semi-durable goods had an average growth of 4.25%. The highest increases were observed, in particular, in household appliances and in the textile sector: bed, table and bath (11.04%), refrigerator and freezer (8.73%), washing machine (7.5%), micro -waves (6.75%) and women’s clothing (6.62%). On the other hand, the smallest increases were observed in items such as perfume (0.15%), computers and peripherals (0.34%), cell phones (0.65%), makeup items (0.92%) and stove (1 .97%).
