This year’s carnival should move R$ 8.18 billion in revenues, a result 26.9% above that obtained last year. The estimate was released today (25) by the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC).
According to CNC economist Fabio Bentes, the tourism sector has been recovering at this pace in recent months, in annual comparisons. In the service sector, especially in tourism, due to repressed demand, the issue of resuming circulation has been strong in these annual comparisons. “And that should happen at this year’s carnival,” said Bentes, in an interview with Brazil Agency.
Carnival is the most important commemorative date in tourism. “Even those who don’t like Carnival end up spending money on trips to the interior, outside Brazil”, highlighted the economist. Even with the end of restrictions on the movement of people, adopted in the most critical period of the covid-19 pandemic, the volume of revenue in the 2023 carnival should be 3.3% below that registered in 2020, when tourism earned R$ 8 .47 billion. “It is an evolution that just didn’t match the 2020 carnival [período anterior à pandemia] because economic conditions worsened between the 2022 and 2023 carnivals”.
Interest and prices
One of these factors is the increase in interest rates, which affects those who opt for financed tour packages, as well as price adjustments, mainly for airline tickets, which rose 23.53% in the last 12 months ended in December, compared to 2021. There was also an increase in highly demanded services at this time of the year, such as accommodation (8.21%) and tour packages (7.16%), whose readjustments were well above the variation in the general price level measured by the Extended National Consumer Price Index ( IPCA) of +5.79%.
“If we had a more favorable situation for consumption, surely the tourism sector would at least be able to tie the volume of revenues in the 2023 carnival”, said the economist.
With the cancellation of carnival in several regions of the country in the last two years, due to the pandemic, the volume of revenue in the 2021 carnival fell 43% compared to 2020, remaining 24% in 2022, below the pre-carnival result. pandemic.
According to CNC research, another important thermometer of the level of tourist activity was the entry of foreign visitors which, in February 2020, stood at 672 thousand, dropped to 254.2 thousand in 2022 and 36.1 thousand, in 2021, from according to data from the Federal Police.
Sectors
The sectors that will account for almost 84% of all revenue to be generated in this year’s carnival are bars and restaurants, with an estimated turnover of R$ 3.63 billion; passenger transport companies, R$ 2.35 billion; and accommodation services in hotels and inns, R$ 0.89 billion. “The first two, because they are what we call simultaneous consumption, concomitant with the holiday. I mean, nobody buys food in a restaurant or travels a lot by paying in advance”.
Regarding transport, Fabio Bentes said that, due to the increase in airfare prices, people are choosing to travel by bus or by car. “This explains why food and transport will account for almost three-quarters of the revenue generated during the 2023 carnival.”
Vacancies
CNC research shows that the demand for tourist services should account for the creation of 24,600 temporary vacancies for Carnival. According to the CNC, cooks (4.4 thousand), kitchen assistants (3.45 thousand) and cleaning professionals (2.21 thousand) will be the most sought after to work in the period. Bentes stated that the hiring of temporary workers this carnival follows a dynamic similar to that of billing. “This makes perfect sense because tourism is very labor intensive. If there is going to be an increase in the frequency of hotels, they have to hire. The same goes for restaurants and the transport sector.”
The economist said that the 24,600 jobs expected for this year are almost on par with the 26,000 created at the 2020 carnival. “The negative highlight was 2021, when there was no carnival, and the 6,400 jobs created were for food service , in particular, deliverywhich moved the job market a little bit in February, but in a different way, and not the one we are used to, with street blocks.”
In 2023, Brazil will have its first normal carnival after the pandemic.
In the historical series, the largest number of temporary vacancies during Carnival was created in 2014, when the proximity of the festivities, held in March, with the Soccer World Cup, in June, stimulated the hiring of a significant contingent of workers, in around 55.6 thousand people.
Business
Excited with the heating up of movement in stores specialized in products for Carnival, mainly due to the large number of revelers who will parade in the blocks, the carioca trade expects a 3.5% increase in sales until the end of the party.
This is what shows the survey by the Clube dos Diretores Lojistas do Rio de Janeiro (CDLRio) and the Union of Commerce Shopkeepers in the Municipality of Rio de Janeiro (SindilojasRio), which heard 200 businessmen from the capital of Rio de Janeiro during the week of 9 to 13 of this month.
The president of the two entities, Aldo Gonçalves, said he believes that the products for the carnival will significantly contribute to the increase in sales in the months of January and February.
“The shopkeeper is excited, and the presence of the large number of national and foreign tourists in the city stimulates and moves trade”. Gonçalves pointed out that a phenomenon that has greatly contributed to the increase in sales of products for this period is the large number of carnival blocks. “Because they don’t wear standardized costumes, the blocks contribute a lot to sales of props, costumes, hats, ribbons, T-shirts, shorts, shorts and sandals,” said Gonçalves.
