After three consecutive monthly declines, traders returned to show optimism towards the end of the year. The Trade Entrepreneur Confidence Index (Icec) calculated by the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC) rose 0.3% in December, accumulating an increase of 10.9% in 2021.
In the seasonally adjusted series, the Icec reached 120.3 points and remained within the satisfaction zone (above 100 points), a level close to that registered in April 2020 (120.7), the period when the covid-19 pandemic began. The rise, however, failed to offset the 13.2% drop recorded last year.
The president of CNC, José Roberto Tadros, recalled that this year the index dropped in 8 out of 12 months, reflecting the fluctuation of business confidence in line with market performance.
“There were two prolonged periods of decline: the first five months and then the quarter from September to November. The third wave of the pandemic; dollar and high prices; rising interest rates; low responsiveness of the labor market; and expectations with the new income transfer program fit into the picture of uncertainties that influenced the scenario”, evaluated, in a note, Tadros.
Expectations and Caution
Among the three components of the Icec, only Current Conditions for Business Owners showed a reduction of 2.3%, pulled down by the Economy sub-index, which registered a drop of 5.1%. Investment Intentions grew 1.4%; and Expectations of the Commerce Entrepreneur, 1.2%.
The CNC economist responsible for the research, Antonio Everton, highlighted that the growth in trade confidence in December may be related to consumer expectations at the end of the year. However, the survey numbers and the low percentage of increase in the Icec show the prudence of business planning.
“Despite the prospects that a good part of the 13th salary is directed to consumption, it is important to consider that families are well indebted and, at the same time, the pressures on production costs in the sector, such as electricity, freight, more expensive products and the The recent increase in interest rates requires attention, above all, for stock management,” said the economist.
