The price of coffee should continue to rise in the coming weeks, at least until this year’s crop, which starts to be harvested around April or May. The statement is from the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic). The main cause of price increases is climate events, which influence the grain crop. Increased consumption worldwide and the arrival of a new global consumer market, China, also influence. 
According to the entity, this impact on prices should remain for another two or three months. Then, a moment of cooling should come in the value of the product, with a certain stabilization. The price drop, however, should only happen from the next year’s crop, the association estimates.
The increase in the price of coffee has been observed since November last year. And it is not a phenomenon only in Brazil, which is the world’s leading exporter in the world, representing almost 40% of world production, followed by Vietnam (around 17%) and Colombia.
Harvest
In 2020, the Brazilian crop broke records, but the following years were bad for the crop, influenced by the climate. In 2021, there was a frost that decreased almost 20% of the Arabica crop. In 2022, she could not recover – overall, the crop takes two years for this to happen, explained ABIC.
Already in 2023, the crop suffered the effects of El Niño [fenômeno que afeta o clima em todo o planeta]with a long period of drought and high temperatures. And last year, the phenomenon he acted was La Niña, who brought elongated rains.
“This is very bad for crop,” explained Abic President Pavel Cardoso, adding that the crop that will be harvested this year will be slightly smaller than last year.
“This accumulation of four years of climatic problems and the growth of global demand give the explanation of this price climbing in coffee,” he said.
With all these climate problems affecting crop, producers had to increase production spending. With this, the cost of the raw material has risen. The industry, said ABIC, had increases over 200% and had to pass on this, around 38%, to the consumer.
All of these conjugated factors ended up contributing to the increase of commodity prices in international bags, which also brings reflexes to the consumer’s pocket. In the New York Stock Exchange, the main Arabian coffee contracts have reached the highest values in history. Today, for example, the quotation rose again and hit a record, reaching $ 3.97 the pound.
“Regarding this record, which is almost reaching $ 4 the pound, much attributed to a potentialization of this short offer. It is a strong entry of backgrounds that generates a historical number, but which is potentially important for the reflection of the entire industry. Is this moment won to everyone? It’s a situation that is up to us all to reflect, ”said Cardoso. “This climbing will be stopped, but it is not known when. This is the question we all ask. ”
Estimates
ABIC expects this year’s crop, which will begin to be harvested in April, help stabilize prices. The sector also has a high expectation for next year’s crop, which can beat the 2020 record, helping to expand supply and decrease product prices. While this does not occur, the consumer should still suffer from the increase in coffee as the industry still has transfers to make for its high cost.
“Regarding the raw material, we must still have some additional volatility until the crop arrives, which should tension due to a very short offer. From the arrival of this crop, we understand that there will be some stability. And when we have finished the harvest, therefore, with a look at 2026, we hope to have a large crop, possibly exceeding 2020, when we had a record crop, ”said Cardoso,
“Regarding the consumer, we will have some additional increase, after all, we had increases over 180% for the industry, which absorbed this increase and passed on part of it to markets, reaching 37% to consumers. So part of this increase will be transferred to retailers and, consequently, to consumers, ”he explained.
Sector data
The consumption of drink in Brazil between November 2023 and October 2024 grew 1.11% over the previous year, according to data released by ABIC on Wednesday (5).
Brazil, which is the largest producer and exporter of the product, is also the second largest consumer of coffee, having consumed 21.916 million bags in 2024, which meant 4.1 million bags less than consumed by the country that It is leading this ranking, the United States. The sector data also reported that the Brazilian consumes, on average, 1,430 cups/year of coffee.
The revenues of the domestic toasted coffee industry totaled R $ 36.82 billion last year, a variation of 60.85% when compared to 2023. The change occurs due to the increase in the price of coffee in gondola. In the foreign market, the revenue was R $ 134 million.
Specialty coffees were increased by 9.80%, when compared to January 2024 with December 2024. The category of Gourmet Coffee registered an increase of 16.17%; the upper cafes of 34.38%; And the traditional and extrafortes cafes, had an increase of 39.36%. Capsule cafes also registered an increase in prices (2.07%).
In the last four years, the raw material has increased by 224%, and retail coffee has increased by 110%. In the last year, the consumer price variation of the toasted and ground coffee was 37.4%, a higher increase than the average basket (2.7%).
