“The fact that you can also have more expensive intermediate products can eventually affect the production of inputs and final products,” said Julio Ruiz, chief economist at Citi Mexico.
On the minimum wage side, the increases that were approved for the following year will mainly affect inflation in services, a segment that for months refuses to give in.
“We are probably going to continue to see this persistence or these accelerations in services much slower than expected,” Ruiz said. “That is, we are not going to see service inflation below 4%.”
The analyst highlighted that increases in the minimum wage, especially in sectors that have a workforce under these salaries, such as restaurants, translate into significant costs that are reflected in consumer prices, contributing to the persistence of service inflation.
1% growth
Analysts estimate that, for this year, growth will be 0.2% and by 2026, 1%.
Ruiz highlighted that a good negotiation of the T-MEC could increase the 1% forecast because companies could join the relocation wave.
Experts highlight that if the renegotiation of the treaty extends beyond mid-2026, the expected investment would be delayed until next year, resulting in weak growth, below the estimated 1%.
