67% of Nicaraguans do not show sympathy for any of the political parties registered in the voting on November 7, according to the results of a poll by the CID Gallup firm, hired by CONFIDENTIAL, and held between October 15 and 22, when there are a few days left for the questioned day controlled by the ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN), which seeks to guarantee the fourth presidential term of Daniel Ortega, in formula with his wife and vice president , Rosario Murillo, for the second time.
Only 9% of those consulted stated that they sympathize with the official FSLN less than ten days before the political event, a number similar to September, when another CID Gallup poll registered 8% and has been considered since then by Luis Haug, director of the firm, as the lowest level of supporters of the ruling party in the last thirty years.
76% of those interviewed consider that the re-election of Daniel Ortega on November 7 will lack legitimacy and will obtain little or no national and international recognition and, given the exclusion of the participation of the opposition on the day of November 7, the percentage of those who consider Ortega’s reelection illegitimate increases to 78%.
However, despite the disinterest in political parties and the rejection of Ortega’s reelection, 55% say they have a lot or some interest in voting, while 44% have little or no intention of doing so.
Regarding the November 7 elections, CID Gallup asked: “Who would you choose between the FSLN and the opposition, if the opposition candidates for president and vice president were selected from among them the seven imprisoned presidential candidates?”
65% answered: “The opposition candidates”, while 17% said: “Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo”, and 18% did not answer the question.
Another telephone poll conducted by CID Gallup in September, based on a different sample of 1,200 respondents, found a similar trend with 65% supporting the “opposition candidate” and 19% supporting Ortega, while 16% said no. know or did not answer the question.
The survey hired by CONFIDENTIAL it was conducted through telephone interviews between October 15 and 22 with 1109 people, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. The measurement was focused on Nicaraguans over 16 years old, with a cell phone with an active line, who are users of social networks and who have used the internet in the last seven days, according to the data sheet of the polling firm.
The political parties
The survey indicates that, after the FSLN, with 9% of partisan sympathy, there is the disappeared opposition party Citizens for Freedom (CxL) with 5%. This group of liberal tendency lost its legal status, after it was canceled on August 6 by the authorities of the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) in the midst of the repressive escalation against the opposition, which annulled the political competition to clear the way for Ortega and Murillo.
The Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) reaches 4%, the Independent Liberal Party (PLI) 3%, the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) has 2%, while the Nicaraguan Christian Way (CCN) and the Alliance for the Republic (Apre ) register 1%.
The Democratic Restoration Party (PRD), which was also stripped of its legal status weeks before CxL, reaches 1% in the CID Gallup poll.
Likewise, the Civic Alliance for Justice and Democracy and the National Coalition obtain 1% of sympathy, which emerged as opposition organizations after the April 2018 Rebellion, in which hundreds of thousands of Nicaraguans took to the streets to sue freedom, justice and democracy, and the resignation of Ortega and Murillo, accused of crimes against humanity after the massacre and repression that left 325 murdered between April and September of that year, thousands of wounded, dozens of disappeared, tens of thousands exiled by political persecution and more than a thousand political prisoners, of which more than 150 remain in the jails of the dictatorship.
65% demand freedom for political prisoners
The survey also inquired about the situation of more than 30 opposition leaders who have been arrested and are being accused of “conspiracy” against national sovereignty, according to the regime’s allegations. “Do you believe in what the police (and prosecution) statements say about these investigations?” Asked CID Gallup.
70% believe “little or nothing” of the police investigations, 24% believe “a lot or something”, and 6% did not respond. The statements of the Police and the Prosecutor’s Office accuse, after the arrest of the political prisoners, of alleged crimes that include “conspiracy” or “treason”, while ordering jail and raids and threatening “forced conditions” for those who resist appear for whimsical subpoenas before the Public Ministry.
A similar percentage of 70% consider that the arrests ordered by Ortega are not justified by the presumption of the crimes attributed to these citizens, and 27% consider that they are justified.
In relation to the situation of political prisoners, 68% consider that the arrests of the seven presidential candidates are not fair, and only 32% believe that they are somewhat or very fair.
Finally, 65% are in favor of political prisoners being released and their political trials being annulled, a demand that has also been echoed by the international community and world organizations that ensure the promotion and defense of human rights. Only 27%, among whom the FSLN sympathizers stand out, think that prisoners of conscience should be tried, and 8% preferred not to answer the question.
