The National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC) estimates that Christmas this year will generate R$69.75 billion in sales, which represents a real increase of 1.3% (already discounted for inflation) in retail revenue . Even so, the sector will still not be able to match pre-pandemic levels: in 2019, turnover was R$73.74 billion.
The estimate is that super and hypermarkets represent 45% (R$ 31.37 billion) of financial transactions. Next come stores specializing in clothing, footwear and accessories, with 28.8% of the total (R$ 20.07 billion), and establishments focused on articles for personal and domestic use, with 11.7% (R$ 8.16 billion).
“The current consumption dynamics have contributed to an increase in sales at the end of the year. But the less favorable conditions caused by the monetary tightening initiated in September by the Central Bank are already felt by the end consumer. This explains the less pronounced growth curve compared to last year, when we projected an increase of 5.6%”, said the president of the CNC-Sesc-Senac System, José Roberto Tadros.
The numbers are unfavorable for those looking for a job. The CNC estimates the hiring of 98,100 temporary employees to meet the Christmas sales volume, 2,300 fewer workers than last year.
“Interestingly, the number is lower than last year, when more than 100,000 temporary workers were hired. The reason for this is the fact that the companies’ workforce has been growing throughout the year, with an increase of approximately 3% in the workforce in the last 12 months, that is, more than 240 thousand vacancies created”, he stated. the chief economist of the CNC, Fábio Bentes. According to him, this makes retail less dependent on temporary work.
“By 2025, the sector’s own expectation is that approximately 8,000 of these temporary workers will be hired,” said the economist.
The exchange rate devaluation should increase the prices of Christmas products, with an average growth of 5.8%, according to the Broad Consumer Price Index-15 (IPCA-15), measuring the 12 months ending in December. The value of the basket should be pressured by the rise in the value of books (12.0%), skin care products (9.5%) and food in general (8.3%). On the other hand, gifts such as bicycles (down 6.2%), telephones (down 5.5%) and toys (down 3.5%) should become cheaper.
In the analysis by states, São Paulo (R$ 20.96 billion), Minas Gerais (R$ 7.12 billion), Rio de Janeiro (R$ 5.86 billion) and Rio Grande do Sul (R$ 4.77 billion ) should account for more than half (55.5%) of the financial transactions forecast by the CNC. Paraná and Bahia are the states with the highest sales projections: an increase in revenue of 5.1% and 3.6%, respectively.
