The National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC) must register for Children’s Day, which is celebrated today (12), financial turnover of R$ 9.35 billion.
The expectation is that retail will show an increase of 2.6% compared to last year. In terms of sales volume, the date is considered the third most relevant event on the national retail calendar, behind only Christmas and Mother’s Day in terms of revenue.
The favorable outlook for the date is based on more favorable consumption conditions than a year ago, less due to interest and inflation and more due to the job market.
According to the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad), by IBGE, in the quarter ending in August 2024 the unemployment rate (6.8% of the total workforce) reached the lowest level in more than 10 years. Furthermore, the real mass of income – impacted by a policy of increasing the minimum wage – showed a real increase of 8.3% in the last 12 months.
Sales on the rise
The expectation is that the segment that brings together clothing and footwear will be the highlight of this year’s Children’s Day, accounting for 27% (R$2.56 billion) of the projected volume, followed by electronics and toys (25% or R$2. 30 billion). With an expected turnover of R$2.15 billion, perfumeries and pharmacies should have the biggest increase (+6.0%) compared to last year.
By region, the states of São Paulo (R$ 2.678 billion), Minas Gerais (R$ 916 million) and Rio de Janeiro (R$ 752 million) are expected to account for more than half (57%) of the total moved on the date 2024. However, the biggest regional advance in relation to the date of 2023 is expected in Paraná (+7.4%).
Average price
Taking as a basis the Broad National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), the CNC’s expectation is that the average price of the basket made up of 11 groups of goods and services related to the date will vary by 2.8% in relation to to Children’s Day 2022 – a slowdown compared to the +6.7% recorded last year.
The average price increase should be driven by items such as books (+9.7%); chocolates (+7.2%) and children’s shoes (+6.5%). On the other hand, the trend is that bicycles (-4.3%); tickets to cinemas and theaters (- 3.9%); and toys in general (-2.8%) are cheaper than a year ago.
