Sales for Children’s Day, on the 12th, should move R $ 9.96 billion in commerce, which represents a 1.1% increase over last year, when purchases totaled R $ 9.85 billion. If the expectation is confirmed, it will be the best date of the last 12 years.
The projection released on Wednesday (1st) is from the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC). The expected nearly $ 10 billion are only behind 2014 ($ 10.5 billion). The values are real, that is, they already include inflation of the period.
Children’s Day is the third most important date for trade, just behind Christmas (R $ 72.8 billion in 2024) and Mother’s Day (R $ 14.5 billion in 2025).
According to CNC, the largest share of sales will go to the clothing and footwear sector, representing 27% of the amount. See below the expectation for each segment:
- Clothing, shoes and accessories: R $ 2.71 billion
- Electronics and toys: R $ 2.66 billion
- Pharmacies, perfumeries and cosmetics: R $ 2.15 billion
- Furniture and appliances: R $ 1.29 billion
- Hyper and Supermarkets: R $ 690 million
- Other segments: R $ 45 million
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Interest -brake
According to CNC’s chief economist, Fabio Bentes, although expected sales are the largest in over ten years, The 1.1% increase in the passage from 2024 to 2025 could be higher if it were not for the current scenario of high interest and inflation.
“Inflation is not yet where we want, and interest, precisely because of this, are also at a level that no one wants, a very high level. So, the combination of these two factors explains why sales will not accelerate this year, even with such a good job market,” he says.
Bentes explains that High interest rates makes the credit more expensive and force the consumer to make choices: “Will you split the toy, will you pay the credit card? If interest is up there, the subject has to put the foot on the brake in what is not considered essential to it, and this ends up harming the trade. The damage ends up being higher for the merchant who sells financed products,” he says.
The Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) argues that it maintains the basic interest rate, the Selic rate, 15% per year, to contain inflation. Price variation totaled 5.13% in the 12 months closed in August, which exceeds the ceiling of the goal of 4.5%.
Expensive credit and default
The CNC stresses that the high interest rate causes a credit process process, which left the average rate for consumer at 57.65% per year last July, the highest level for this month since 2017, according to Central Bank data.
The confederation adds that the interest rate also impacts the level of default. The percentage of delayed families reached 30.4%, the largest level in the historical series of consumer debt and default research (PEIC), which began in 2010.
Beyond Children’s Day, CNC recalls that Trade in the country has four months in a row of retreat in salesaccording to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Inflation of children
The CNC survey estimates that inflation of typical children’s day sales products was higher than the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA)up 8.5%, on average, compared to date by 2024.
Of the 11 items marked, four have expected inflation on the double -digit field:
- Chocolates: 24.7%
- Sweets: 13.9%
- Snack: 10.9%
- Cinema, theater and concerts: 10.3%
Fábio Bentes explains that this inflation is already consolidated, that is, it was formed over the last 11 months. About chocolate, he points out that the increase in price is related to international issues.
“Chocolate has in production a commodity [matérias-primas negociadas com cotações internacionais]the cocoa. Whenever we have some shock in the price of a commodity Of these, we end up having a repercussion in the price in the domestic market, ”he says.“ There are dozens, perhaps hundreds or thousands of brands of this product, worth the good and old price research, ”suggests Bentes.
Already items considered flagships of sales, such as toys (4.1%) and children’s clothing (3.3%), will have inflation less than the overall index, according to CNC estimate.
Cocoa Seed of Combu’s Daughter Chocolate Factory, in the Belém Metropolitan Region. Tânia Rêgo/Agência Brasil
