The current head of the Nicaraguan Army (EN), General Julio César Avilés, along with his 30 generals and many of the colonels of the command are “mafiosi and corrupt” who have given themselves body and soul to the dictators, mainly Daniel Ortega, however, there is hope that a new generation of officers can do something to get out of tyranny, according to security expert Javier Meléndez.
In a recent interview conducted for the program In Contactof Article 66, Meléndez analyzed the circumstances in which the armed forces could be left after the death of dictator Ortega and their possible contribution to the departure of the regime.
For the expert, who also directs the analysis platform Expediente Abierto, the new Army officers can be very important in the process of implosion of the dictatorship and in the transition, especially after the death of the dictator Ortega, because the current vice dictator and their children would be unable to control the power.
However, according to the analyst, we still need to know more precisely what is happening within the Army regarding senior officers and the feeling that junior officers may harbor who are prevented from developing a normal professional career due to the plug in the old Sandinistas dressed in the olive green uniform.
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«We still do not know what level corruption has penetrated the military establishment. We know that the generals are very corrupt, that they are mafia members, we know that the colonels could be very corrupt too, because their relatives and themselves have been placed in different entities of the State, but what we do not know with certainty is the situation in which they are. the remaining officers,” says Meléndez.
The analyst also points out that they do not know exactly the feeling that officers in the middle chain of command of the armed forces have for being in an institution where they do not have a clear future for the development of their careers due to the immovable presence of General Avilés, whom he describes as a “scoundrel”, who is a great plug “to his gangster generals in the Army commands and who do not allow an officer to have a military career as expected.”
«There is a lot of lack of understanding of what is happening with this (within the Army), but that does not omit or exclude that we try to work with these people and begin to have an important level of persistence in the construction of messages for those soldiers. We have to be very clear with them; that they are not going to pay for the (broken) dishes, that it will be that scoundrel (General Avilés) and his associates who are going to pay for the broken dishes,” recommends the exiled analyst.
Murillo is a “nobody” and will not be able to control the Army
For Meléndez, the death of Daniel Ortega will be the worst scenario for the armed forces, and it will be worse for the vice-dictator and her family, since the hegemony and loyal control that the dictator maintains over the military high command that is blindly subordinated to him will be broken. leader but not Murillo.
The expert maintains that “with Ortega dead, everything is over (in the blind loyalty of the military), because the Army “is not going to continue with a family that the only thing left is to cling to (the figure of) Daniel Ortega, because they cannot “They have the capacity and power of Ortega, because of what he was, because of what a tyrant he is, and because of what he pretends to be.”
Likewise, the expert warns that the physical disappearance of the dictator “is the worst scenario, for that family (Ortega-Murillo), because there will be pressure from the United States, there will be pressure from the international community, and the army will not comply.” He is going to stay with a family completely out of reality” and warns that, although Ortega is also out of reality, “the Chinese, the Russians and the terrorists are comfortable with him.”
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However, “that other lady (Rosario Murillo) is a “nobody.” She is a lady who handles local and national things, but she does not have the slightest idea of how things happen, how international and strategic things move at a global, international level,” warns the director of Expediente Abierto.
In his analysis, the expert points out that this scenario of Ortega’s death does not mean that the uniformed men are going to immediately “kick” Murillo and his children but “they are not going to commit to being a pillar of the dictatorship, as they are.” now”.
However, he warns that the Army is not going to solve the lives of Nicaraguans. «It is not that five months after Ortega died they are going to put some tanks in front of the Carmen and that’s it, “you (Murillo) go away, you have fed up with us”, no, it is everyone’s job. What I am saying is that the Army without Daniel Ortega is going to be much more vulnerable than it is now, because the caudillo is really gone, the great leader is gone, the connection of those generals is gone.
Murillo tries to buy generals or make them new
A phenomenon already noticed by several analysts and in which Meléndez agrees, is that Murillo has done work with the new generals, to be “influencing an entire group”, but none of these officers has the experience to “play in the Major Leagues.” , at an international level.
In that sense, the analyst insists to the opposition groups that they must continue working to attract the new high officials to collaborate with the fight against the dictatorship.
The possible way out: wait for Ortega to die
Finally, the expert in security issues considers that, to continue the fight, all the actions that are being carried out for now must be improved, in addition to “waiting for Daniel Ortega to die and continuing to push for the theory of implosion to become effective, improving communication with people inside (regime officials and active military) who can do some vital work in that sense,” especially at this time when the dictatorship is under great pressure and paranoia.
