To begin with, the great loser of these elections has been Open Town Hallwhich experienced a notable reduction in its voting, falling 8.6 points percentages compared to 2019, which has meant its virtual departure from the political map and, without a doubt, a loss of strength within the multicolor coalition.
The party of the ultraconservative and retired military man, Guido Manini Ríosfailed to obtain representation in the Senate and be left with only two Deputies. This data reveals not only the polarization of the electorate, but also the search for alternatives within a system that seems to be undergoing a profound reconfiguration.
The big winners of the national elections
On the other hand, the Wide Front (FA) and the Colorado Party (PC) have emerged as the real winners of this election. The FA increased its vote by 4.3 percentage points compared to 2019, consolidating itself as a viable option in a scenario of growing social and political discontent.
The PC also had a notable performance, increasing its support by 3.5 points. This growth can be interpreted as a response to the fragmentation of the electorate, which has led citizens to reevaluate their political alignments in search of stability and continuity in their policies.
However, it can be inferred that the defeat of Cabildo Abierto is symptomatic of a broader trend in the Uruguayan political system, with new actors who entered the field to capture much more specific votes, something like vote sybarites who found “niche very particular electoral market” and not exploited before, as is the case of Gustavo Salle Lorier (of whom we will talk later).
The National Party (PN) has also experienced a loss, although lower, 2.2 percentage points, which suggests that the electorate is looking for new proposals and that traditional parties face significant challenges in charming voters.
Meanwhile, the Intransigent Radical Ecologist Party (PERI), of César Vega, and the Popular Assembly (affiliated with the FA) have disappeared from the political scene, and several parties failed to obtain the votes necessary to have representation in the House of Representatives. This phenomenon, known as the fragmentation of the party system, highlights the need for renewal and adaptation to the changes that voters seek.
The new configuration of power in Uruguay requires dialogue and alliances
In terms of blocs, the FA advanced 4.3 points compared to 2019, but is still almost 4 points below the vote achieved by Tabaré Vázquez in 2014, which suggests that, although it has partially recovered, the FA has not managed to recover the confidence of a significant majority of the electorate.
For its part, the right wing coalitionwhose decline of 6.7 percentage points reflects, in large part, the impact of the results of the 2019 runoff, faces a dilemma: how to win back an electorate that shows clear signs of dissent and change.
What is striking about the results is that, despite the voters’ vote, The FA manages to obtain a majority in the Senatewith 16 senators, thus increasing the number of representatives by three compared to 2019. This victory allows the FA to maintain considerable influence in policy formulation at the legislative level, even if it fails to win the runoff.
In contrast, The National Party loses a senator, who goes to the Colorado Partywhich reduces their ability to exercise control over the legislative agenda. This change could show, in part, the fragmentation of the vote and the inability of some groups to consolidate an effective majority.
In the House of Representativesthe scenario is more complex, with the FA remaining in the minority despite having increased its representation to 48 deputies: it is, yes, the largest bench, but the right-wing coalition gathers together like a hard wall to cross.
The situation is further complicated by the arrival of the match Sovereign Identity, by lawyer Gustavo Salle Lorier, which, with two deputies, becomes a crucial actor in the new legislative configuration. It is predicted that he will be a notorious and noisy player, due to Salle’s controversial style and his reactionary ideas – sometimes based on conspiratorial ideas – since he criticizes both the Frente Amplio and the right-wing coalition, so his votes will be courted and seduced by both forces
When looking at the internal panorama of the parties, it is evident that internal struggles and fragmentation will also mark the future of Uruguayan politics. Within the Broad Front, the Popular Participation Movement (MPP) has obtained an overwhelming majority, with 69.4% of the total, which indicates a consolidation of internal power that could be both a strength and a weakness, depending on how they handle dissent and the expectations of the electorate.
The Communist Party (PCU) has been reduced to 12%, which highlights the erosion of its support base and the need for reforms
