The increase in expenses at a level greater than revenues caused the primary deficit to rise in September 2025. Last month, the Central Government – National Treasury, Central Bank and Social Security – recorded a negative result of R$ 14.5 billion, against a primary deficit of R$ 5.2 billion in September 2024. This means a real increase of 166.6%, already considering inflation using the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for the period, informed the Treasury Nacional, in its report released this Thursday (30).
“Compared to September 2024, the primary result observed resulted from the combination of a real increase of 0.6% (R$ 1.1 billion) in net revenue [após transferências a estados e municípios] and a growth of 5.7% (R$ 10.2 billion) in total expenses”.
Last September’s result was worse than expected by financial institutions. According to the Prisma Fiscal survey, released every month by the Ministry of Finance, market analysts expected a negative result of R$6 billion.
In the year to date, the Central Government records a primary deficit of R$ 100.4 billion, a value 9.1% lower than that obtained in the same period last year, already considering inflation, which was recorded at R$ 103.6 billion. This year’s result combined a surplus of R$185.9 billion in the National Treasury and the Central Bank and a deficit of R$286.3 billion in Social Security.
The primary result represents the difference between revenues and expenditures, disregarding interest payments on public debt. This year’s Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) and the new fiscal framework establish a target of zero primary deficit, with a tolerance margin of 0.25 percentage points of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) up or down, for the Central Government.
At the lower limit of the target, this is equivalent to a deficit of up to R$31 billion.
Income and expenses
Last month, net revenues rose 5.8% in nominal values. Discounting IPCA inflation, the increase was 0.6%. The growth resulted, mainly, from the real increase of 11.9% (R$ 6.2 billion) in net revenue allocated to Social Security. According to the Treasury, the result was influenced, among other factors, “by the positive dynamics of the labor market” and the increase in Simples Nacional social security payments.
Expenses, last month, rose 11.2% in nominal values and 5.7% considering inflation. The increase was concentrated in discretionary expenses – which are those that are not mandatory, such as investments and non-essential public policies – which rose 100.9% (R$ 10.6 billion). The items that contributed most to this growth were payments in health actions (R$4.1 billion) and other expenses (R$2.9 billion).
The Treasury further explained that the interannual comparison was influenced by the anticipation, in September 2024, of the payment of R$4.5 billion (at September 2025 prices) in federal court orders scheduled for the 2025 financial year relating to the state of Rio Grande do Sul, due to the public calamity situation. Precatório are debts with definitive court sentences to be paid by the government.
“This anticipation mainly impacted the headings of Social Security Benefits, Personal and Social Charges and Judicial Sentences and Court Orders, resulting in a reduction in expenses relating to the first two in the comparison between September 2024 and September 2025”, he says.
