USA plans to designate the alleged drug trafficking cartel that the president claims to lead as a foreign terrorist organization on Monday Nicolas Madurowhich anticipates a new phase of pressure against Venezuela amid calls for dialogue.
The Secretary of State maintains the FTO list – for its acronym in English – which today includes Islamist groups, separatists, guerrillas and more recently gangs and drug organizations from Mexico and Colombia.
The next one is the Cartel of the Suns, which according to Washington is led by Maduro and other senior Chavista leaders. Experts rule out the existence of a formally established organization and refer to permissive corruption networks with illicit activities.
“They are responsible for terrorist violence throughout our hemisphere,” said Secretary Marco Rubio, who heads the wing within Donald Trump’s administration calling for the use of force against Venezuela.
The declaration comes at a time when the United States mobilized the world’s largest aircraft carrier to the Caribbean along with a flotilla of warships and fighter planes for anti-drug operations, which Maduro maintains only seeks his overthrow.
“It opens up a realm of possibilities, both military and sanctions, for the Trump administration to continue exerting pressure,” explains to AFP Juan Manuel Trakexpert in sociopolitics and university professor in Mexico.
Bombing?
Trump affirmed that the leftist ruler’s days are numberedauthorized the CIA to act in the country in covert operations, although the possibility of negotiating with Maduro also appeared.
The Air Force reported a bombing exercise with B-52 aircraft in the Caribbean, amid the uncertainty that surrounds Venezuela about the possibility of an attack on the country.
“The United States defined the legal basis for (…) intervening in a territory”estimates Alexis Alzuru, doctor in Political Science.
The definition of the FTO list in the State Department does not speak of military actions, but Trump’s Secretary of Defense announced that the measure will give “a lot of new options” to the government.
There have been 83 deaths so far in around twenty US bombings of alleged drug boats in the region.
The US aviation authority alerted civil operators of the “worsening security situation and increased military activity in and around Venezuela.”
“This increase in pressure generates the perception that some type of attack is almost imminent,” considers Trak.
Alzuru sees possible attacks on “some tracks that would be linked to drug trafficking” far from urban centers. “It would be the maximum intervention that I think Donald Trump could make in Venezuela.”
Economic blow?
The United States prohibits providing “material support or resources” to any organization on the terrorist list, although the Venezuelan economy has already been the target of US sanctions since 2019, including an oil embargo.
Some economists agree that the list can further suffocate the economywhich once again faces a hyperinflation scenario.
Sectors that were not affected by the sanctions would suffer losses if international operators decide to avoid the country to avoid problems with the United States.
For now, oil is outside pressure from Washington, which allows the giant Chevron to operate in the country.
Sales on the black market – with large discounts due to the embargo – may be affected if the US fleet intervenes in the transit of these shipments.
“They have not managed to take a ship, but let’s say that this could legally open that possibility,” indicated analyst Francisco Monaldi. “If it started to happen, not only would it hinder the flow, but it would also obviously cause discounts to increase.”
Negotiate with Maduro, accused of leading the Cartel of the Suns?
Maduro danced on Friday at an event with students. “It’s Friday and I’m going partying! And no one can stop me!” launched.
The government shows a facade of strength, with frequent military exercises in which the high command declares absolute loyalty to the president.
“If that network does not fracture and does not force Maduro to negotiate,” explains Alzuru, “the probability of negotiation with the United States is basically zero.”
Maduro said he was willing to speak “face to face” with Trump, who loomed a meeting “at some point.” Nothing on the agenda so far.
Trak sees it as “very unlikely” that Chavismo will fall now and that Edmundo González Urrutia, who claims electoral victory in the presidential elections last July, will assume power with Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado.
“Trump could be thinking about having access to Venezuelan mineral resources, in exchange for de-escalating the threat in the Caribbean a little and then making some type of internal transition in Venezuela,” he indicates.
