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Carlos Fazio: Towards a bipolar geoeconomy?

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the capitalist system globalized is in crisis. It is experiencing an economic, structural, but also political crisis of legitimacy of the states and of capitalist hegemony. The current conflict between the United States and NATO against Russia, with its epicenter in Ukraine, is not the cause but the consequence of the general crisis of global capitalism. The United States is struggling to maintain inter-capitalist hegemony, but there are signs of the imminent disintegration of the dollar-based economic system and its replacement by a new international socio-economic order led by China, combining centralized strategic planning and market economy, control government on monetary infrastructure and private business participation.

As the economist Michael Hudson has pointed out, for more than a generation leading US diplomats warned of what they believed would represent the empire’s last foreign threat: a Russian-Chinese alliance that would dominate Eurasia. The US economic war, sanctions and hybrid war against China and Russia have ended up uniting both countries, and are pushing others into their emerging Eurasian orbit. What in the medium term could configure a bipolar geoeconomy: West vs Eurasia.

According to Sergey Glazyev, a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Minister of Integration and Macroeconomics of the Eurasian Economic Union, we are witnessing a period of changing technological and global patterns that is always accompanied by structural economic crises and wars, respectively. The change in technological patterns begins with an increase in energy prices, after which the economies of developed countries plunge into a prolonged depression, from which they emerge by a storm of innovations. During this period, political-military tensions intensify and the arms race drives the economy to enter a new and long wave of growth based on a new technological order. Glazyev maintains that today that period is closing with the leap of China and India to the leadership of world technical and economic development, based on a new technological order whose core is a complex of nano, bioengineering, information, digital, additive and cognitive technologies. .

At the same time, there is a transition towards an alternative system of economic development management, whose nucleus also lies in Southeast Asia, and as always happens in those periods, Glazyev points out, the ruling elite of the central countries provokes a world war to try to maintain global intra-capitalist hegemony.

Within the framework of a planned strategy of hystericalization of the population (Russophobia), at this juncture the US plutocratic and military elite is deploying a hybrid informational-cognitive and monetary-financial war against China and Russia, to chaotize both countries, and also to India.

Michael Hudson and Sergey Glazyev agree that the recent confiscation (theft) of gold and of 300 billion dollars in Russian foreign reserves in custody accounts of Western central banks -as happened before with Venezuela, Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan-, coupled with the targeted raid on the bank accounts of Russian billionaires, undermined the status of the dollar, euro, pound sterling and yen as global reserve currencies, which will hasten the ongoing dismantling of the global economic order, as little It is likely that some sovereign country will continue to accumulate reserves in those currencies, and seek to replace them with national currencies and gold, or a new digital payment currency founded through an international agreement.

Most transactions between member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union are already denominated in national currencies, and a similar transition is taking place in trade with China, Iran, and Turkey; trend that could include India. In parallel, the development of a non-banking digital payment system is promoted, which would be linked to gold and other commodities traded on the stock exchange.

The energy and food price crisis – Russia and Ukraine are major grain exporters – is affecting the countries of the global south. But also to the US and European economies that have to face the boycott of Russian gas, and also need cobalt, aluminum, palladium and other basic raw materials that could be used by the Kremlin as a means of pressure for the remodeling of diplomacy and world trade.

The US strategy of using Ukraine as a wedge between Russia and China has not worked. Instead, the barrage of sanctions against Moscow has had the impact of reinforcing the complex integral integration of the Russian and Chinese economies, which could be strengthened with the articulation of Xi Jinping’s New Silk Road and the Eurasian Economic Union promoted by Putin. .

In turn, as Hudson pointed out, the US forceful diplomacy has rubbed the European Union in the face of its abject servilityso the next showdown could come within Europe, as nationalist politicians try to lead the breaking of the iron curtain imposed by the White House to lock their satellites into dependence on US liquefied gas supplies at higher tariffs.

In short, within the framework of the current phase of militarized accumulation −as William I. Robinson calls it−, which as a result of the massive supply of weapons to Ukraine triggered the actions of US military and security mega-corporations such as Raytheon, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Boeing, the maneuver of the Deep State that controls Joe Biden could be to ensure that Europe contributes more to NATO, buys more war material from the military-industrial complex, and locks itself further into US-imposed trade and monetary dependency.

Without ruling out that, as has happened historically with other US presidents, the Biden administration may become directly involved in the war for electoral purposes, or use Poland and Romania to further destabilize the Ukrainian environment.

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