The president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, said that, contrary to what common sense thinks, the financial sector is more optimistic than the non-financial sector regarding the country’s inflationary expectations.
The statement, made this Tuesday (13) during a public hearing in the Chamber of Deputies, is based on the initial conclusions of the Firmus survey released this week by the BC after consulting 92 businesspeople from non-financial sectors. According to the monetary authority, the survey is still in its pilot phase.
The non-financial sector basically comprises companies and economic activities that are not directly linked to the provision of financial services and are mainly focused on the production of goods and services. This is the case, for example, of the industrial, trade, services and agricultural sectors.
Campos Neto said that the survey conducted by the Central Bank responds to criticisms against other surveys, such as the Boletim Focus, in which 120 financial companies are consulted that, supposedly, would profit from the rise in interest rates, a measure adopted under the justification of avoiding rising inflation.
“We see [a crítica de que] This inflation expectation that is made in the surveys is an expectation of the financial market; that is, people in the financial market who are interested in having high interest rates. In view of this, we carried out the Firmus Survey, which is not done with the financial market, but with firms [empresas do setor não financeiro]”, explained Campos Neto.
“What we see, when we compare the real sector research with the financial sector research, is the opposite of what we hear. Firms think, in terms of [projeção da] inflation, which is higher than [projeta] the financial system,” he added.
During his presentation at the joint hearing of the Economic Development and Finance and Taxation committees, the president of the BC compared the results obtained in the Firmes survey with the Focus bulletin.
In May 2024, the prevailing inflation expectation for the year was 4%, according to Firmus, and 3.89%, according to the Focus bulletin – which surveys market agents’ expectations. For 2025, the expectation of the two surveys was 4% and 3.77%, respectively.
“We see that it is exactly the opposite of what we read out there. In fact, companies have been more pessimistic about inflation than the financial market,” added Campos Neto.
Criticism
Some members of Congress took advantage of the hearing with Campos Neto to criticize the way he has been conducting the Central Bank’s monetary policy. One of them was related to the failure to use foreign exchange reserves to discourage the appreciation of the dollar and, consequently, the rise in interest rates, since, when appreciated, the US currency tends to generate price increases (inflation) in Brazil.
In response, Campos Neto said that the BC only makes this type of intervention in the exchange rate in times of market stress, and that if it did not do so, it was because it understood that there was no dysfunction that would justify this type of action.
The president of the Central Bank refused to answer questions about alleged offshore companies (located abroad) that were linked to him and had profited from the rise in interest rates in Brazil.
“I’m going to ask a direct question: how much did you have in offshore accounts before and how much do you have now, after becoming president of the Central Bank?” asked Congressman Glauber Braga (PSOL-RJ). Campos Neto said he would not answer questions from a personal point of view and that he had already reported to the Ethics Committee of the Central Bank.
