Madrid/Cuba is one of the countries with the most negative population statistics in the UN’s demographic outlook report. The document, prepared using a database spanning from 1950 to 2100, indicates that the island reached its peak population in 2012, when it had 11,303,175 inhabitants. When the 21st century ends, the projection indicates that there will be only 5,577,280, 50% less.
The decline in population will not be a phenomenon exclusive to Cuba, although its situation is extraordinary. The report reflects that in 2080 the planet will reach its maximum level with 10.3 billion people and then will begin a decline of 6%, since in 2100 there will be 9.6 billion inhabitants, indicates the document, entitled World Population Prospects 2024 and prepared by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
In general, the decline is attributed to a lower fertility rate in the world’s major economies. This is the case for several nations that are in the ultra-low fertility rate group, when there are less than 1.4 births per woman. Cuba barely escapes this group, as this figure currently stands at 1.44. However, everything indicates that the blow to the Cuban population is not located there.
The decline is generally attributed to a lower fertility rate in the world’s major economies.
Spain is in that segment, with a fertility rate of 1.2 children per woman. Although the UN estimates that it will rise slightly to 1.38, its population, which is currently 47.9 million, will fall to 32.1 million people in 2100, a sharp decline, but of 33%, much lower than that of the Island, so the causes point more to migration.
According to UN forecasts, of the 5.5 million Cubans in 2100, 2.8 million will be men and 2.7 million women, with an average age of 54.9 years, indicating a significant aging of the population. The rate forecast for that year is 410.9%, meaning there will be 410 people over 60 for every 100 people aged 14, compared to 157 today. Meanwhile, the population growth rate, which is currently -3.5, will be -10.8 in 2100.
The mortality rate will also rise to 17 per 1,000 inhabitants, with 95,000 deaths per year, compared with 38,000 births. Life expectancy will rise significantly, to 88 years from the current 78, but at the same time the percentage of women of childbearing age will fall by another 10 points from the current 41% to 31%.
Li Junhua, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, believes that the population data in the report are generally positive and that a decline in population not only reflects a higher level of development but will also result in “lower ecological pressure from human impact due to lower aggregate consumption.”
A decline in population not only reflects a higher level of development, but will also result in “lower ecological pressure from human impact due to lower aggregate consumption.”
The report indicates that the population ‘peak’ has been reached in 63 countries, including Cuba, although the majority are from the so-called ‘developed world’, with China, Germany, Russia and Japan standing out. In this group, a net population reduction of 14% is expected.
There is another segment of countries, led by Brazil and Iran, where the peak will occur between now and 2054; finally, in the remaining 126 countries, the peak will not occur until the second half of the century.
In this last group of countries that will continue to grow in population for decades are India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria and the United States, presumably due to immigration in the latter case.
In 50 countries around the world, it will be emigration that will mitigate the effects of a declining and increasingly ageing population: the arrival of emigrants will increase the birth rate and slightly rejuvenate the average age of the population.
By the end of the 2070s, there will be more people in the world aged 65 or over than those aged 18 or under, and a greater number of elderly people (over 80) than infants under one year of age.
In 50 countries around the world, it will be emigration that will mitigate the effects of a declining and increasingly older population
All these forecasts can, however, change significantly. The Covid-19 pandemic was a factor that significantly changed demographic data, for example, with a one-off rise in the mortality rate.
Moreover, mass migration in Cuba may, in fact, have already changed the numbers. The UN puts the island’s population at 11 million at the moment, although the number of residents is almost certainly less than 10. The figure is being kept hidden by the delay in the census that the government was supposed to have prepared in 2022 and postponed due to the economic crisis.
The new tentative date for its realization is next 2025. However, an independent study of the Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos that came to light a few weeks ago states that Cuba’s population fell by 18% between 2022 and 2023 and is at 8.62 million.
